Interview: 'No illusions' on EU Treaty ratification[fr][de] 

The Irish 'no' to the Lisbon Treaty in the referendum last June represents a "warning signal for Europe", said Moïsi, who founded the IFRI and is also the chief editor of the quarterly "Politique Etrangère". 

He insists that Ireland’s rejection of the text is not an isolated case, calling it "the third negative referendum", after the 'non' and 'nee' votes in France and the Netherlands on the European Constitution in 2005. All this marks a "profound divorce between Europe's citizens and the European Union", warns Moïsi. 

As to the practical hurdles of ratification, the analyst underlines in particular that the eurosceptic Czech President Vaclav Klaus "won’t change his mind", being "determined in his euroscepticism". Poland also, will prove difficult, he adds.

In the perspective of the European elections in June 2009, the temptation to solve the question of Europe's future by "putting pressure on Ireland" would be "negative", and may "irritate" the Irish, leading to a "form of populism", Moïsi argues. 

Moïsi also said that French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who currently holds the EU's six-month rotating presidency, should not persist in linking the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty to further enlargement. 

"This kind of blackmail would be a mistake...It will not get the Treaty ratified and will cut Europe off from its main playing card, which is enlargement," he warned, arguing that already "Europe's role as an actor on the international scene has weakened brutally over the past weeks." He thus strongly advocated finding solutions for taking on board Croatia and also Serbia, saying Belgrade "should be rewarded" for Karadzic’s arrest. 

Moïsi also warned that, while the French Presidency's continued ambition for an EU defence agenda despite Ireland's opposition to such plans may be "legitimate", but is "unrealistic". "No European country is really enthusiastic to spend more money on defence" apart from France, Great Britain and perhaps Germany, he said. This is particularly true now that the bloc is faced with a rising economic crisis, he added. 

On the other hand, the French foreign policy expert is optimistic concerning transatlantic relations following the upcoming US presidential elections. According to him, both candidates – "Obama and even Mc Cain" would be more concerned with global environmental issues. Obama's victory would be "very well perceived" in Europe, he adds, yet he does not exclude the emergence of new trade disputes, should the Democratic candidate become the next US President. 

To read the interview in full, please click here.