Irish government on brink of collapse[de] 

Just days after receiving warm congratulations from European leaders for ratifying the Lisbon Treaty, Taoiseach Brian Cowen could find himself facing a general election should his coalition partners, the Irish Greens, this weekend decide to abandon Cowen's Fianna Fáil. 

The trigger for the possible collapse has been an expenses scandal - reminiscent of that in the UK earlier this year – which saw the Irish speaker of parliament John O'Donoghue agree to resign next week, following weeks of media attention focusing on the lavish foreign travel perks he accrued while a Fianna Fáil government minister. 

The Greens, who this week are holding talks with Fianna Fáil over a new government programme, are insisting on a "complete overhaul of political expenses," Green parliamentarian Ciaran Cuffe told Ireland's national broadcaster RTE yesterday (7 October). 

The Greens could vote on the new government programme at a party conference this Saturday, and would require a two-thirds majority of all members for the programme to be approved. Should they fail to approve the new programme, a snap general election is the most likely outcome. 

Speaking to EurActiv, opposition leader and Taoiseach-in-waiting Enda Kenny said that "nobody seems to know what will happen this weekend," but he added that if the government should fall, his Fine Gael party is "absolutely ready, as ready as can be" for an election which polls indicate it would win comfortably. 

Kenny dismissed claims that last week's referendum result was a success for Brian Cowen, arguing that there "was no victory in it" for Fianna Fáil. "The government didn't carry the result on its own," he said. 

New government 'a draw' between left and right? 

In the European context, a Fine Gael-led government would ostensibly be a fillip for the European People's Party (EPP), the centre-right alliance whose member parties currently hold 21 of the EU's 27 heads of state. 

However, in terms of European realpolitik, the likely new Irish government would be "a draw between the EPP and [the European Socialists] PES," as Fine Gael's main coalition partner would be the Irish Labour Party (PES), an Irish source told EurActiv. 

In fact, the result could even be seen as a victory for the PES, said the source. "The recent economic strife and government difficulties have seen Labour steal a march on Fine Gael. Indeed, it was the surprise intervention of Labour leader Éamonn Gilmore this week that ultimately provoked O'Donogue's exit," he argued. 

As a result, there could realistically be a three-way battle to become the country's largest party. "Fine Gael will still probably emerge victorious, such is the unpopularity of Fianna Fáil, but Labour might come close to matching their seat tally, giving them a strong hand in coalition negotiations following an election," the source concluded.