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Post an EU jobThe selection of a new European Commission, never the simplest of political tasks, will this year be more complex than ever. Politically and institutionally, 2009 contains a whole range of permutations regarding the 'how?', 'when?' and 'who?' of the next EU executive.
At the political level, it remains to be seen how many commissioners will receive a renewed mandate, and with the likely creation of a number of significant new portfolios, the usual horsetrading for influential commissionerships is likely to intensify.
Meanwhile, on the institutional plane, while the Irish have approved the Lisbon Treaty in their second referendum, the Treaty cannot be passed into law until it is given final approval by the Czech Republic.
As a consequence, the current Commission will remain in place until the end of 2009.
Returning to national service
In January, EurActiv broke the story that the next European Commission may feature as many as twenty new faces (EurActiv 28/01/09), with most of its current members expected to leave the EU executive on their own initiative or as a result of changing national political contexts.
It is relatively common for commissioners to leave their positions during or at the end of their mandates in order to take national office, usually in government. High-profile 'defectors' in 2008 included Peter Mandelson (EurActiv 06/10/08) and Franco Frattini (EurActiv 10/03/08).
Critics often argue that this weakens the Commission, both in terms of its administrative continuity and general public perception. Indeed, earlier this year, Dalia Grybauskaitė, at the time the EU's commissioner for budget and financial planning, left Brussels to successfully run for the Lithuanian presidency (EurActiv 18/05/09).
Of particular interest this year, however, was the fact that a number of commissioners put themselves forward for June's EU elections as high-profile names on their national party lists. According to EU rules, if commissioners choose to return to their home countries to engage in active campaigning, they must leave their positions. However, if they simply attach their name to a party list, they are not required to step down.
As a result, a commissioner could, in theory, head an electoral list in their member state and gain many votes due to his/her high profile, then decide to not take up their seat in the Parliament, thus passing their seat to the next person on the list, all the while continuing to work for the EU executive. Indeed, this is precisely what happened as Commissioners Kuneva, Hübner and Reding topped the poll in Bulgaria, Poland and Luxembourg respectively.
Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, president of the Party of European Socialists (PES), told EurActiv that "some commissioners will use their position to promote themselves as candidates. That is wrong, and the president of the Commission should insist that anyone who does so must stand down".
Strongly rebuking this practice, Rasmussen said although "commissioners are party-political," they "need to keep their official duties very separate from their political activities," adding that he "can name, shame and complain" if he believes "commissioners are abusing their positions or taking advantage of their president's party-political sympathies".
The PES president believes the flaw lies in the Commission's internal code of conduct
, which in his opinion ought to be reviewed "at the very least". "It might be better to oblige commissioners to stand down as soon as they are chosen as a candidate. Also, I am not very happy with the idea of commissioners standing down only for the duration of the campaign – as if being a commissioner was an unimportant task that can simply be set aside if the commissioner has something more interesting to do," he said.
Barroso II: The sequel
Since announcing in July 2008 his desire to serve a second term as Commission president, José Manuel Barroso's reappointment seemed increasingly inevitable, despite his star dimming somewhat with the escalation of the global financial crisis. The failure of the European left to unite around a single alternative candidate before the European elections in June 2009 was arguably Barroso's greatest boon.
When the centre-right won the elections (EurActiv 07/06/09), many commentators viewed the result as the last piece in the puzzle for Barroso's reappointment.
Barroso won unanimous backing from EU heads of state and government at the 18-19 June summit for a second five-year mandate at the head of the European Commission (EurActiv 19/06/09), and on 16 September the European Parliament approved him to steer the European Commission for a second five-year term - not only under the terms of the current Nice Treaty, but also under the tougher criteria of the Lisbon Treaty, when it comes into force.
Three 'new' commissioner portfolios
Presenting his plans for the new Commission, Barroso confirmed that he envisages a commissioner responsible for justice, fundamental rights and civil liberties, including citizens' and minority rights. This is no surprise, as Liberal (ALDE) leader Guy Verhofstadt made his group's support for Barroso conditional on the creation of such a post (EurActiv 15/07/09). As reported by EurActiv, Brussels is awash with speculation as to what other new portfolios may emerge (EurActiv 24/09/09)
Barroso also said he envisages having a commissioner for internal affairs and migration, and another one for "climate action". He also said he planned to create the new post of chief scientific advisor (EurActiv 25/09/09).
Table of commissioners (in conjunction with a report by Hill & Knowlton Brussels):
|
Country |
Name and current role of commissioner |
Commissioner-designate |
Portfolio |
EurActiv coverage |
|
Portugal |
José Manuel Barroso President |
Reappointed. |
Barroso will serve another term as president, and with a reinforced mandate could construct a more dynamic, policy-driven role for himself. |
|
|
Sweden |
Margot Wallström Vice-President Institutional Relations and Communication Strategy |
Having served two terms, Wallström will step down. Her likely replacement is Gunilla Carlsson, while other candidates include Swedish Minister for European Affairs Cecilia Malmström (ALDE) and former Swedish PM Carl Bildt (EPP). |
Gunilla Carlsson is being touted as the new development commissioner. |
|
|
Germany |
Günter Verheugen Vice-President Enterprise and Industry |
As Verheugen will retire, there is reportedly a two-horse race between former CDU General Secretary Peter Hintze (EPP) and European Socialist group leader Martin Schulz (PES) for his post. |
Brussels think-tank Bruegel argued that the Commission should "go back to the situation that prevailed until the early 1990s" and merge the internal market and industrial affairs portfolios. |
|
|
France |
Jacques Barrot Vice-President Justice, Freedom and Security |
While Barrot has announced his willingness to serve another term, there are solid rumours that Nicolas Sarkozy supports French Agriculture Minister Michel Barnier (EPP) as his replacement. Observers have also mentioned current chairman of the Autorité des Marchés Financiers, Jean-Pierre Jouyet. |
Before his reappointment, Barroso confirmed he was envisaging a commissioner responsible for justice, fundamental rights and civil liberties, including citizens' and minority rights. The Netherlands are rumoured to be pushing for this portfolio. |
|
|
Estonia |
Siim Kallas Vice-President Administrative Affairs, Audit and Anti-Fraud |
Reappointed by the Estonian government on 17 September, Kallas will remain commissioner and could even keep the same portfolio. |
No changes expected. |
|
|
Italy |
Antonio Tajani Vice-President Transport |
Tajani is expected to be reappointed. |
Tajani is pushing strongly to keep the transport dossier, and is believed to have a good chance of doing so, though the Czech Republic has also expressed an interest in securing this portfolio. |
|
|
Luxembourg |
Viviane Reding Information Society and Media Commissioner |
Reding is expected to serve a third term with the same portfolio, having topped the poll in European elections. |
Rumours are rife that Barroso may create a new 'digital' portfolio to replace the current information society brief, as desired by Reding. Such a move would strengthen the commissioner's hand in enforcing competition in the telecommunications market as well as addressing the thorny issue of digital copyright. |
|
|
Greece |
Stavros Dimas Environment Commissioner |
Dimas is believed to be liked by Barroso and may remain the country's commissioner, particularly if he receives a big portfolio disproportionate to Greece's political weight - he himself hopes to remain environment commissioner. However, Dimas is from the political centre-right, and new Greek centre-left PM George Papandreou is believed to favour Socialist MEP Stavros Lambrinidis. |
Barroso wants a commissioner for "climate action". However, it remains to be seen which specific directorates will fall under that remit, besides those currently under the environment portfolio. A big country may expect to be awarded this new brief. |
|
|
Spain |
Joaquín Almunia Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner |
Almunia may become Spanish finance minister. Observers have identified MEP López Aguilar, chair of the European Parliament's civil liberties committee and former justice minister, as a potential new Spanish commissioner. |
No changes expected. |
|
|
Poland |
Pawel Samicki Regional Policy Commissioner |
Pawel Samecki was appointed by the Polish government following the resignation of Danuta Hübner, who was elected as an MEP. Largely seen as a caretaker commissioner, Samecki, who was a member of the management board at the National Bank of Poland, is likely to be replaced by Janusz Lewandowski, a centre-right MEP and economist from the ruling Civic Platform party. |
No changes expected. |
|
|
Malta |
Joe Borg Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Commissioner |
Borg is interested in reappointment, but could be replaced by Malta's Permanent Representative to the EU Richard Cachin Carmana. |
No changes expected. |
|
|
Lithuania |
Algirdas Šemeta Financial Programming and Budget Commissioner |
Algirdas Šemeta arrived in Brussels in July 2009 after Dalia Grybauskaité left the Commission to become Lithuanian president. |
Some sources believe that Semeta will retain the budget portfolio in the new Commission line-up, while others say it is not yet certain. |
|
|
Slovenia |
Janez Potočnik Science and Research Commissioner . |
Though Potočnik is unaffiliated, it is believed that he enjoys support from the new coalition and may be reappointed. Speculators also mention former Slovenian PM Anton Rop (PES). |
Experts told EurActiv that "if the president is serious about research and development and the new Lisbon Agenda, then it could make sense to have a commissioner for human capital, encompassing R&D and the modernisation of the European economies in a forward-looking manner". |
|
|
Slovakia |
Ján Figel' Education, Training, Culture and Youth Commissioner |
Slovakia's government-nominated Ambassador to the EU Maroš Šefčovič as the country's new commissioner. According to EurActiv Slovakia, Šefčovič should stay on as Slovak commissioner in the incoming Commission, where he is eyeing a "stronger portfolio", preferably energy or transport. |
The portfolio could be restructured in the eventuality of a rethink in the research and development job (see above). |
|
|
Finland |
Olli Rehn Enlargement Commissioner |
Rehn has been confirmed by Finnish PM Matti Vanhanen as the country's candidate for the commissioner's post. Rehn has made it known that he wishes to stay on in Brussels. If the Lisbon Treaty is ratified, he might be named as the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. |
No changes expected, though Finland's Prime Minister Vanhanen and Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb are lobbying for a prominent portfolio for Rehn. |
|
|
Belgium |
Karel de Gucht Development and Humanitarian Aid Commissioner |
De Gucht, former Belgian minister for foreign affairs, has replaced Louis Michel, elected to the European Parliament. As the post was handed over to a Fleming as foreseen by Belgium's principle of language rotation, de Gucht is likely to remain on as commissioner, although not with the same portfolio. |
No changes expected. |
|
|
Hungary |
László Kovacs Taxation and Customs Union Commissioner |
Kovacs's reappointment seems unlikely. According to the latest press reports, Gábor Iván, the official in charge of preparations for Hungary's EU presidency in 2011, has emerged as the favourite to become commissioner. However, Iván faces competition from János Veres, a former finance minister. |
No changes expected. |
EurActiv 18/07/08 |
|
Netherlands |
Neelie Kroes Competition Commissioner |
Kroes is not likely to be reappointed, despite her positive reputation in Brussels. The latest rumours claim that current Justice Minister Ernst Hirsch Ballin is the hot favourite. Minister for economic affairs, Maria van der Hoeven, former agriculture minister, Cees Veerman, current Minister for Agriculture Gerda Verburg, former Secretary of State Yvonne van Rooy and former Secretary of State Clémence Ross have also been named as potential candidates. |
No changes expected, though it is unlikely the Netherlands will get to keep the dossier as the country is considered too small to hold such an important portfolio for two consecutive terms. |
|
|
Denmark |
Mariann Fischer Boel Agriculture and Rural Development Commissioner |
On 15 September, Mariann Fischer Boel confirmed that she is stepping down. With the agriculture portfolio now up for grabs, pressure on the Danish government to pitch for the post is likely to gather pace. Several names have been suggested including Birthe Rønn Hornbech, the current minister for refugees, immigration and integration affairs, Ulla Tørnæs, minister for development co-operation, and Eva Kjer Hansen, minister for food, agriculture and fisheries. |
Romania has also expressed its interest in securing this portfolio (see below). |
|
|
Austria |
Benita Ferrero-Waldner External Relations and European Neighbourhood Policy Commissioner |
As Ferrero-Waldner does not have support from her governing coalition, she is unlikely to be reappointed. Former People's Party (ÖVP) Finance Minister Wilhelm Molterer is the primary candidate to replace Waldner at the Commission, though his prospects have been overshadowed following a recent political scandal. Ursula Plassnik, the former Austrian foreign affairs minister, is also viewed as a potential candidate. |
Portfolio will likely remain unchanged in terms of structure, though it remains unclear how the job will fit into the new EU external hierarchy if the Lisbon Treaty is ratified. |
|
|
Ireland |
Charlie McCreevy Internal Market and Services Commissioner |
McCreevy will step down. As candidates, observers have named former PM John Bruton (EPP), former EP President Pat Cox (ALDE), Health and Family Minister Mary Harney (ALDE), Transport Minister Noel Dempsey (UEN) and Maire Geoghegan-Quinn, a member of the EU Court of Auditors. |
France is reportedly eager to obtain the internal market portfolio. |
|
|
Czech Republic |
Vladimír Špidla Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities Commissioner |
As a provisional government will remain in place until the elections take place in October, the Czech government has expressed reluctance to name its candidate until the new government is in place. Špidla could stay on although the country's current minister for European affairs, Stefan Fule, and Christian Democrat candidate Pavel Svoboda are viewed as strong contenders. In addition, Jan Svenjnar (a former presidential candidate) and Pavel Bem (the Mayor of Prague) have also been mentioned as potential contenders. |
No changes expected. |
EurActiv 03/09/08 |
|
Latvia |
Andris Piebalgs Energy Commissioner |
Piebalgs is likely to remain as the country's candidate in the line-up for the new Commission. |
The portfolio could be reshuffled to reflect changing priorities. Experts told EurActiv that the portfolios of energy, transport and natural resources will take a front position in the next Commission and provoke a debate over which commissioner gets what. |
|
|
Bulgaria |
Meglena Kuneva Consumer Protection Commissioner |
Kuneva will be asked to step down, to be replaced by Roumyana Zheleva, the current foreign minister. |
No changes expected. |
|
|
Romania |
Leonard Orban Multilingualism Commissioner |
As reported by EurActiv Romania, former Agriculture Minister Dacian Ciolos will be the country's new commissioner, and it is believed the Romanian government will push hard for him to be given the agriculture portfolio. |
Some experts have called for a European culture commissioner, arguing that "right now we have one commissioner for education and culture and one for multilingualism. There is a reasonably sound case to re-aligning those two, allowing a strong European culture commissioner to cover not only issues generally pertaining to European culture, but also to deal with minorities and languages". |
|
|
Cyprus |
Androulla Vassiliou Health Commissioner |
Vassiliou wants to serve a full term and is likely to be reappointed. |
No changes expected. |
EurActiv 16/02/09 |
|
United Kingdom |
Catherine Ashton Trade Commissioner |
Ashton looks most likely to serve another term. UK Secretary of State for Transport Geoff Hoon might be another option. |
No changes expected. |
EurActiv 04/02/09 |
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