Sarkozy at the wheel of Europe: What to expect from the French EU Presidency 

Giving a general picture of the political landscape, priorities and perspectives to be expected during the forthcoming French EU Presidency, Vaïsse claims that President Sarkozy's main task will be "tirelessly trying to persuade the 27 member states to adopt bold common positions on sensitive issues". 

The June paper stresses that France must be very cautious when dealing with the issue of the Lisbon Treaty. "Ensuring that it (the French Presidency) doesn't threaten the ratification process of the Lisbon Treaty by all member states" bears on the French government, claims the author. 

He describes how the Lisbon Treaty will affect the French Presidency in two ways:

• On the one hand, it will be an obstacle for Sarkozy in "making bold statements or taking bold public initiatives" that risk "antagonising public opinion" before the treaty's ratification. 
• On the other hand, France will "have to prepare the implementation of a not-yet-ratified treaty" due to enter into force in January 2009, "without being the country holding the presidency in the first or second semester of 2009". 

Vaïsse states that the future of the innovations brought about by the new treaty is at stake. Among other measures, the text introduces new EU positions such as a permanent "President of the European Council", he explains. The author speculates that "highly publicised issues" such as who should fill the top positions may be avoided by the French Presidency. 

For the presidency holders, he stresses the great importance of maintaining good relations with other EU member states, while at the same time having "the power to persuade". 

In France's case, its relationship with Germany is "crucial" here, argues Vaïsse. There are sensitive issues on which Paris has taken a "harder line" than its partners or adopted special positions, says his paper. France's position is not always shared by the other member states and it may provoke conflict, the author adds. 

When dealing with Iran for instance, France will "have to find common ground" with its EU counterparts, the paper suggests. 

Considering the current divisions among EU states on international issues like the Beijing Olympic Games, Vaïsse concludes that the July-December period will certainly not be a calm one.