Researchers identify new 'biodiversity threats'[fr][de] 

"Horizon scanning is more and more common in government and business, but we should also be using it to help prioritise scientific research," said professor Bill Sutherland of the University of Cambridge. 

Sutherland is the lead author of an article presenting a list of the 25 most urgent issues expected to affect biodiversity in the future. The list was drawn up on the basis of a joint effort of 35 environmental scientists, policymakers, environmental NGOs and representatives of academia and scientific journalism, who consulted some 452 persons.

For each topic identified, the article outlines the associated threats, opportunities and research needs. 

"The exercise shows how 'horizon scanning' could help us foresee issues that have taken scientists and policy makers by surprise in the past, such as the UK public's response to genetically modified crops," said British Ecological Society in a statement.  

The list, published last week in the Journal of Applied Ecology, identifies, among others, the following as the most pressing challenges for biodiversity: nanotechnology, artificial life and biomimetic robots, the impact of geo-engineering the planet to mitigate climate change and the effect of rising demand for biofuels. Other issues include change in demand for food, dramatic changes in freshwater flows, new illnesses and an increase in non-native invasive species due to climate change.

The aim of the exercise was to identify the 25 topics of highest relevance, but not to rank them. However, with the methodology used by the horizon scanning team, nanotechnology scored highest "because of the uncertainties involved in both the way the technology would come to be used and the environmental impacts". 

The authors of the article argue that horizon scanning - incorporating wide consultation with providers and users of environmental science - should be used by policymakers and researchers to identify knowledge gaps and help set policy and research agendas.