EEA hopeful on EU reaching Kyoto targets[fr][de] 

The EEA report "Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2004 "  projects that the EU might be on track to reach its Kyoto greenhouse gas reduction commitment (-8% by 2010 compared to the 1990 baseline). But the Copenhagen agency underlines that this will only happen provided all Member States implement all existing and planned policies and measures. 

The projections show that Denmark, Italy, Portugal, Spain and, to a small extent, Germany will exceed their emission targets (as defined in the EU's 'burden sharing agreement') and that therefore other EU countries will have to 'over-deliver'. Without this overdelivery, the projected reduction will only be 6.5%.

The EEA's projections seem quite optimistic when compared to the real emissions figures until 2002. In a report in July 2004, the EEA stated that the EU-15 had only reduced its emissions by 2.9% below 1990 levels. Although emissions decreased in most economic sectors in the period from 1990 up to 2002, the transport sector (esp. road transport) saw an emissions increase of 22%.

To reach its objectives, the Member States will have to implement all measures planned. The EEA report shows that existing domestic policies will only reduce emissions by 1% compared to 1990. If all additional planned measures are well implemented, the reduction would increase to 7.7%. If some Member States also implement their Kyoto 'flexible mechanism' plans (using reductions in non-EU countries as compensation for not doing more reductions at national level), the projected reduction could reach 8.8%.