Analysis: Fall of Doha and rise of regionalism? 

With the increasing likelihood of a failed or significantly delayed Doha Round (possibly until as late as 2009), the paper looks at ways in which the world’s trading arena could change and the impact this would have on any future WTO deal.  

The authors view the current state of play as follows:

• We have now reached a turning point in which anti-globalisation thinking has become mainstream;
• increasing regionalism is the likely outcome of a shift away from a multilateral trade pact, and will take shape in pronouncedly different forms;
• the poorest countries will lose out from the stalled Doha ‘Development’ Round as we enter a less benign period of world economic fortunes, and; 
• EU/US views are widely diverging on a range of issues concerning a) the importance of a WTO deal, b) the causes of the negotiating failure, c) ways out of the present impasse, and d) the sufficiency of regionalism.

The paper asserts that the main priority now must be to examine the consequences of a long-term WTO failure, both on the future of WTO negotiations and on the entirety of EU trade policy. A clear set of ex-ante checks, using simple scenario analyses of the likely future impact of alternative policies, should be used. Ideally, it is suggested, such assessments should include a consideration of the potential costs of increased regionalism. 

The authors conclude by stating that the EU needs to gets its trade policy priorities right, especially given the likely erosion of EU/US ability to shape events in the future as geopolitical influence inexorably shifts eastwards.