Elections key to US trade and environment stance[fr][de] 

It is unclear how much the Democrats would be able to influence the US agenda if Congress and the White House are politically divided. Indeed, even if the Democrats got both houses, the President will maintain his ability to veto. 

The Democrats would need to create an atmosphere in which some Republicans would vote with them on certain issues, as a veto can only be overridden in Congress by a two-thirds majority. 

Nevertheless, they would still be able to exert an influence over a number of key international issues on Bush’s agenda through the power of the purse and oversight. 

Iraq: 

If the Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives, they could try to change President Bush's policy on Iraq. Indeed, key Democrats have called for the upcoming elections to be a referendum on the war. 

Nevertheless, although Democrats are critical of Iraq, they are not arguing for an immediate withdrawal of US and coalition forces because most recognise that a complete withdrawal would be likely to cause an even worse situation than now exists. They are more likely to push for a recalibration or limited withdrawals or redeployments. 

Climate change: 

Both Democrats and Republicans have been giving attention to climate change ahead of the elections, but President Bush again made his stance on climate change clear at the start of a two-week global conference on climate, that opened on 6 November in Nairobi, when he reiterated his refusal to join in the Kyoto Protocol. 

Many believe a change of majority in Congress will create a different pathway on climate change, as an increasing number of members of Congress are calling for action to rein in emissions of carbon dioxide to prevent global warming. 

However, any effort to tackle climate change policy in the next Congress would likely hinge on modest proposals that would enjoy bipartisan support. The watershed is thus likely to come after the next Presidential elections. 

Doha Round: 

A change in congressional leadership could affect the US trade agenda as well. 

Most important for the international agenda will be Congress’ decision on whether to extend the Trade Promotion Authority Act, also known as “fast track authority”, when it expires in July 2007. The act gives President Bush powerful authority in negotiating trade agreements by not allowing Congress to amend the agreements and requiring their review within a fixed period. 

If this Act is not renewed, a successful conclusion of the Doha Round will be increasingly unlikely because Congress will regain its power to make amendments to any trade deal presented to it, thereby making it less attractive for other WTO members to participate in negotiations as they are unsure of obtaining any real commitments from the US. 

Thomas Mann, a scholar with the Brookings Institution in Washington, says the act is not likely to be extended by Congress, whatever the majority that emerges after the elections. “It will take time and exceptional presidential leadership to rebuild domestic political support necessary to re-establish this authority. This will be a central challenge facing the next President,” Mann said. 

Nevertheless, in an interview with EurActiv, Claudio Murri, chair of AmCham EU’s managing board, said he believes that a short extension to the TPA is achievable if necessary. “It will not be easy, but...if the Doha Round needs a little extra time, the Congress should grant it,” he said. 

To read the full interview with Murri, click here.