Bioenergies are the all-rounders among the renewables, since only biomass is equally suitable for the generation of electricity and heat as well as the production of fuels. Thanks to their versatility, bioenergies today constitute the lion’s share of over 60% in the energy supplied from renewables.
Making better use of the potential of bioenergy can improve the energy mix markedly. This is a pressing issue, not least in Germany because of the current debate over the reduction of agricultural subsidies and a possible governmental change in Berlin, which could give rise to a “new energy policy”. Biomass is, of course, also included in the preferred energy mix of a CDU/CSU-led government.
Bioenergies could contribute a good 4% to power generation by 2010 (2004: 1.6%). Presently, subsidisation is still relatively high, ranging from 8.4 cents/kWh to 21.5 cents/kWh. Owing to the technological progress, the cost of producing one kWh of power should fall to 7.5 cents for biogas and 6 cents for solid biomass by 2030. The prospects for bioenergies are especially positive in the heat market, where they already contribute more than 90% to the provision of heat from renewable energies. Pellet units, in particular, which utilise handy-sized biomaterials, have great potential. Thanks to alternative heating systems, homeowners no longer have to rely on oil and gas. Moreover, biomass heating plants with small district heating systems are an interesting alternative for municipal and commercial heat supply.
As the use of bionenergies enjoys more widespread approval in the public, the business segment of renewable energies also offers an interesting alternative source of income for traditional farmers. If established farmers and forest managers became modern “energy managers”, two birds could be killed with one stone. Biomass, the energy of the future, would get the necessary support and income prospects in rural areas would be stabilised. However, for the greater integration of bioenergies to be successful, policy-makers would have to create a framework which is reliable and objective-oriented in the longer term.
The competitiveness of bioenergies depends on the oil price. Even based purely on production costs and excluding subsidies, biofuels will become fully competitive, at the latest, when the oil price doubles (H1 2005: USD 50/bbl.). Pellet heating systems are already operating at lower fuel costs; in this case, a doubling of the oil price would prove far more costly than the disadvantage of higher start-up costs for the heating systems. It will take years for bio-power to become competitive. However, oil does not play a role in electricity generation in Germany. When the positive external effects of using bioenergies are taken into account as well, the economic valuation immediately becomes more advantageous.
Under favourable assumptions, the share of bioenergies in primary energy consumption could be in the double-digit range in Germany by 2030. This would be a significant jump (at present: 2.3%). However, a restrictive factor will be the limited availability of farming land and forest worldwide. Given the continued growth of the world population and the dietary trends (e.g. more meat), it seems little realistic, despite the technological progress in agriculture and forestry, that bioenergies will come close to doubling their share of global primary energy consumption in the forecast period.
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