Today's (26 October 2007) Summit is likely to leave more questions than answers behind, with the number of outstanding issues on trade, energy and international questions in EU-Russia relations steadily increasing over the past months.
"While several of the outstanding issues will not be solved we will make progress on some and will lay the ground for future work at this moment of transition in Russia," External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner told MEPs on 24 October.
While some EU diplomats voice frustration over the state of EU-Russia relations and the little progress that will be achieved at the summit, others hail a "new realism", marked by lowered expectations on both sides.
Talking to EurActiv, Elena Prokhorova, an analyst at the EU-Russia Centre, said that the main difference between this summit and the preceding ones is that "expectations are not high, but realistic". Until now the EU-Russian strategic partnership has been "losing its sense of direction", the analyst believes. Prokhorova judges this development as a positive turn, even though "no breakthrough" is expected from the summit.
Tatiana Shubina from the Moscow-based think tank European House affirmed this view and said that "one should not expect any historical breakthroughs from this forum". Shubina added: "In particular, it is unlikely that Russia and EU will start negotiations about a new basic agreement on co-operation and partnership, since Poland, which vetoed it, has yet to form its new government."
Key issues on the table at the meeting in Mafra, Portugal include:
- Energy
The EU is expected to outline its thinking behind the Commission's recent energy liberalisation package, and especially a clause on reciprocity in energy relations with third countries. The clause aims to protect the EU's energy infrastructure from control by third countries by obliging foreign firms to 'unbundle' their production and transmission activities in Europe before they are allowed to obtain a controlling stake in European energy companies.
Russia's ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizov, told reporters ahead of the summit that this clause was "hardly compatible with principles of an open market".
The summit is also expected to agree on a new early-warning mechanism to avert potential energy supply crises. Disruptions of supply in recent years via Ukraine and Belarus have raised EU concerns.
However, the mechanism to be agreed "has no legal status", according to top officials in the Commission. Therefore, commitments to an early-warning system remain a political declaration, casting doubts on the likely effectiveness of the mechanism.
- Trade
The EU intends to give "new impetus" to Russia's WTO accession process and the Commission demonstrated confidence that the talks will advance substantially on this matter. Top Commission officials said ahead of the summit that there was a "strong will to complete the process before the end of the year".
But a political row on Polish meat imports to Russia is still ongoing and Poland has announced it would block Russian WTO accession unless the trade quarrel is resolved.
Meanwhile, the outcome of recent Polish elections, with Donald Tusk tipped to be next prime minister, has raised hopes of resolving the political row that has been dragging on for two years and makes way for the conclusion of a new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA).
- Drugs-control cooperation
A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the European Monitoring Centre on Drugs and Drugs Addiction and the Russian Federal Drugs Control Service will be signed in the margins of the summit.
- Cross-border cooperation
Russia and the EU are expected to step up their cooperation on cross-border cooperation. A financial contribution to EU programmes from the Russian side is expected to ease the problems of traffic congestion at border crossing points.
- Steel
Also in the margins of the summit, a bilateral agreement on steel will be signed between the EU and Russia as part of an annual review.
- Siberian overflights
A long-standing dispute on Siberian overflights still remains unresolved and according to Ferrero-Waldner, prospects of signing an agreement on this at the summit are "very slim". The EU wants a phasing out of Russia's "royalty payments", imposed on EU airlines for Siberian overflights, by 2014.
- International issues
Important international issues concerning the Balkans, the Middle East and frozen conflicts in Georgia and Moldova will also be discussed at the meeting. For the EU, a settlement of the final status of Kosovo is a top political priority.
However, views on this diverge widely. While the EU supports plans to grant "supervised independence" for Kosovo, Russia insists that any solution would have to be with the consent of Serbia.
Talks between Serbians and Kosovars led by an international troika are unlikely to lead to a comprehensive settlement by 10 December, when the 'contact group' is to report back to the UN.
