"Net imports of fossil fuels are expected to stay at roughly today's levels in 2020 even when EU's climate and energy policies are fully implemented," the Commission says in a new 'action plan' on energy security and solidarity, released yesterday (13 November) in Brussels.
The action plan, which is the 'chapeau' document for a massive package of over 45 related communications, contains a myriad of measures, data and recommendations distilled into a five-point plan that charts the policy priorities for the next Commission, due to take office in September 2009.
Looking East
Energy infrastructure, notably gas pipelines, and external energy relations top the list. The Nabucco and Baltic Sea pipelines are listed as priority in the review, along with four other projects.
Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs recently toured the Caspian region in an effort to secure a commitment to gas provision from Azerbaijan for Nabucco (EurActiv 04/11/08). Moscow, which has existing and extensive energy relations with Baku, is competing with the EU for privileged access to Azeri gas.
Concrete actions to address oil supply security are not listed in the review, however. This is due to the liquid nature of oil market, says the text. In contrast, "gas supply depends mainly on fixed pipeline infrastructure," it adds.
Oil supply constraints are also being addressed with EU rules for vehicle CO2 emissions and green transport legislation, Pieblalgs told journalists during the presentation of the review. EU Commission President José Manuel Barroso added that the Commission was "seriously considering" inserting special incentives for clean vehicle development as part of a planned €40 billion package to assist Europe's automotive industry (EurActiv 30/10/08).
But the review's central focus on gas rather than oil has angered some green MEPs (see positions). The text may also raise eyebrows at Russia's state-owned gas monopoly Gazprom, which has made efforts to assuage EU concerns about disruptions in gas supply on the grounds that a vibrant European energy market is a strategic interest for Russia.
In addition to calling on member states to convey a 'single message' in external energy relations, Barroso, who travels to Nice today (14 November) for an EU-Russia summit, downplayed conerns that the document could irk Moscow. "This is not a package targeted at Russia," he said, insisting that the EU was in a state of "positive inter-dependence" with the country. EU consumers should nonetheless be aware of the risk that "external supplier countries cannot honour their commitments," he said.
Taking stock
New rules on emergency oil and gas stocks are contained under point three of the action plan, followed by revisions of existing EU energy efficiency laws on appliances, tyres and buildings. "Making better use of the EU's indigenous energy resources" is the final point of the action plan, which lists renewable energy as the "greatest potential source of indigenous energy". A Communication on the development of a North Sea offshore wind energy grid features among the six priority infrastructure projects.
Coal is listed as an "essential component" of the EU's domestic energy supply, followed by nuclear, which "contributes to the EU's security of energy supply as a major source of baseload electricity".
Going green, later
"Deep structural change such as carbon-free electricity generation, or a radical technological shift such as breaking transport's dependence on oil will take considerably more time," according to the action plan, which includes a 'vision for 2050' characterised by a carbon-free energy production, the end of oil dependence in transport, low energy buildings and 'smart' interconnected electricity grids.
However, it has been left to the next Commission to sort out the details on how this structural shift will be realised. In 2010, the EU executive is expected to propose a renewed EU energy policy vision.
20 equals 12?
The action plan has created some confusion about the likely savings the EU will make by 2020 through energy efficiency improvements.
In its energy and climate package, the Commission points to 20% greater energy efficiency by 2020. Brussels admits that while this target, unlike the 20% targets for CO2 reduction and renewable energy uptake, is non-binding, it will be achieved in any case since member states will need to make considerable energy efficiency improvements as part of their CO2 reduction efforts. But the figures contained in Annex 1 of the Second Strategic Energy Review point to only a 12% reduction in final energy demand by 2020.
Piebalgs explained the discrepancy on the grounds that energy efficiency and energy demand reduction figures carry a different weight. "A 20% target means not allowing [energy consumption] to grow plus coming down. That's why 20% less would mean actually energy efficiency by somewhere [around] 30%. So if we had a target of 30% energy efficiency, it would correspond in 2020 to 20% less energy consumption," he said.
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