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Gazprom forecasts 40% drop in sales to Europe

Published 25 June 2009
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Russia's Gazprom expects its sales to Europe to drop 40% this year but sees European demand picking up again as the average price in 2009 falls by a third, its export chief said on 24 June.

At a news briefing, Alexander Medvedev rebuffed accusations that a rigid pricing policy was to blame for plummeting sales, and insisted that Gazprom would not offer cheaper gas to stimulate demand. 

The world's largest gas company will only export 142 billion cubic metres of gas to Europe this year, down from 158.8 bn last year, with export revenues falling to $40 billion from $65 billion, Medvedev said. 

"When there is a global storm there is no safe haven anywhere," he said. 

Medvedev added that a sharp drop in exports in the first half of 2009 was not the result of the financial crisis, but of gas prices on the spot market that were half those in Gazprom's long-term contacts. 

"Our consumers, being rational in their approach, have opted for the less expensive choice," he said. 

But the average price of gas is falling, and will soon help bring consumers back around to Russian imports, Medvedev added. 

He forecast that the average cost of Russian gas will be more than $280 per thousand cubic metres on export markets in 2009, down from $400 in 2008 but at the upper range of previous guidance. 

No need to panic 

Some analysts agreed that discounts could be counterproductive for Gazprom. 

"If they now, as prices are falling, break their pricing policy by giving discounts, their customers in Europe would also ask for discounts when the prices start rising," said Maria Radina, an oil and gas analyst at UBS in Moscow. 

"That could result in a complete spot situation, which would mean a loss of predictability in future sales and volumes." 

European consumers, who buy a quarter of their gas from Gazprom, have also been buying more alternative fuels and cutting imports as they wait for gas prices to catch up with distinctly lower oil prices. 

Medvedev said Algeria and Nigeria suffered from the same problem in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, and only Norway had increased supplies. 

"But we don't see any reason to panic or for pessimism," said Medvedev, adding he believed Gazprom would boost its European market share in the future. 

"Norway has no special flexibility. The structure of their price formula is such that the spot segment is prevailing," he said, countering remarks by an energy ministry official this week that Gazprom should have been more flexible in its pricing. 

"The advantage of our contracts is in price predictability," he said. "It doesn't make any sense to halve prices to see offtake picking up by, let's say, 3%". 

"And starting from April we are seeing gas imports are beginning to exceed our expectations," he added. 

(EurActiv with Reuters.) 

Positions: 

The EU is expected to sharply increase its gas imports from the Middle East in the coming years as its production steadily declines and domestic consumption rapidly grows, said Nicholas Sarkis, director of the Paris-based Arab Petroleum Research Centre, quoted by the Business 24-7 website. 

"A few years ago, the EU's growing dependence on foreign gas imports [from Russia] was not a concern […] But the conflict in Georgia in the summer of 2008, the repeated disruptions in Russian exports to several Eastern European countries over the past three years and, above all, the total halt in Gazprom's exports to Europe via Ukraine in January 2009 have undermined those certainties in the meantime," said Sarkis. 

Background: 

Prices may be one of the reasons behind the "major" gas crisis that is currently unfolding between Russia and Ukraine, prompting European Commission President José Manuel Barroso to report to EU leaders at a recent summit in Brussels (EurActiv 19/06/09). 

Barroso informed EU heads of state and government of Ukraine's difficulties in paying for underground storage of Russian gas this summer when demand is low, putting stability of supplies at risk when demand picks up this winter.

In recent years, Gazprom has been selling gas to Kiev and buying it back in winter: a scheme which works well when gas prices are on the rise, but which would trigger heavy losses for Ukraine's Naftogaz this year, because gas prices are set to fall. 

Clients in Europe also adjust their imports according to gas prices. Meanwhile, as a consequence of the January gas crisis between Russia and Ukraine (see EurActiv LinksDossier on 'Pipeline politics'), European countries are actively seeking alternative supplies and building LNG terminals to bring gas from the Middle East as a way of reducing their dependence on Russian imports.

Gazprom announced that it may cut its investment programme by 30% this year due to weakened finances, agencies announced. 

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