Renewables currently provide 16% of European electricity (see EurActiv LinksDossier), but the European Commission expects their share to rise to 34% in 2020. The EU executive has indicated that wind energy should contribute around 12% of this electricity consumption, says Kjaer.
"Wind energy will be the biggest contributor to reaching that target," he said, adding that the 12% figure will not be difficult to reach. To achieve it, wind power capacity would need to increase by 9.5 GW every year for the next thirteen years. "It's not a huge growth rate," Kjaer explained, considering that capacity increased by 8.5 GW in 2007 alone.
The EWEA head said the Commission figure is in line with the wind industry's own targets outlined last year, but he now believes these will be revised later in the year to reflect the new Renewables Directive adopted before Christmas (EurActiv 09/12/08). "It does provide some investor certainty, which will mean that we will probably increase our targets," he said.
The major effect of the directive in promoting wind energy comes from its ability to make all EU countries put in place legislative frameworks, cut administrative barriers and provide fair access to electricity grids, Kjaer outlined. "The directive is probably the most important piece of legislation in the world for our sector."
Gaining access to grids is the first step in developing the use of wind power, he said, pointing out that until now it has been difficult to convince transmission system operators that connecting wind turbines will not ruin the power system. When the amount of electricity generated by wind rises, it is necessary to reform the entire infrastructure, as was the case in the 1960s when nuclear energy began to be produced on a large scale, he continued.
"The idea of interconnecting the various European systems and creating a European power grid is something we're working very much towards. It's also a condition for having better competition in the European internal electricity market," he said, adding that the variability of wind energy will be much less of a problem when the power system is larger.
An EWEA report found that in 2000, the wind industry installed more power-generating capacity than any other energy sector except for gas. For the past five years, the European wind energy sector has created 33 new jobs every day, according to the study, which also revealed big variations between member states.
Kjaer said the differences could be explained by regulatory frameworks. The leading countries began to put frameworks in place to promote renewables as early as the 1990s already, he explained. Then, an EU law dating from 2001, which set voluntary targets, enocuraged a second wave of countries to introduce similar legislation.
"What we expect with the EU directive that is coming now is firstly to accelerate the development in the second wave. But we're also seeing a third wave of countries that as a result of the conversations about this directive being put in place have also started putting in place frameworks," Kjaer concluded, warning that it will nevertheless take a few years before new national legislation comes into force.
