In a new policy brief, Centre for European Reform (CER) deputy director Katinka Barysch argues that despite the problems and postponements, the project ''still makes sense'' and should remain the flagship of the EU's energy policy.
Yet the paper, published on 5 May, also warns that the EU must recognise that its power to secure gas supplies from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iraq is fairly limited.
The Nabucco pipeline is designed to provide the EU with gas from suppliers in the Caspian and possibly the Middle East, yet faces competition from the South Stream project, backed by Russia (see 'Background').
In March, EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said that a decision on the construction of the Nabucco pipeline should be made in 2010, but that its completion may be delayed by four years – from 2014 to 2018 (EurActiv 25/03/10).
Despite the current lack of demand for Nabucco and the EU's ambitious climate change goals, many energy experts still foresee a slow but steady increase in European demand for gas in the future, the CER paper states.
''If such forecasts turn out to be correct, the EU will need Nord Stream, South Stream and all the southern corridor pipelines to satisfy its additional demand,'' says Barysch.
Nabucco, which is at the centre of the EU's southern corridor strategy, would reduce Europe's reliance on gas imports from Russia and provide a link to the gas-rich Caspian region – and possibly the Middle East in future.
Barysch believes that the EU and its governments should give Nabucco stronger public support if they believe it can achieve objectives ''beyond enabling some energy companies to make a profit by shipping additional gas to Europe''.
Challenges for guaranteeing supply
Currently, the only readily available gas field for Nabucco is Shah Deniz in Azerbaijan and a bilateral dispute between Baku and Ankara over gas prices is holding up progress on the second stage of the pipeline.
Turkmenistan – which exports most of its gas to Russia – is keen to get connected to the Nabucco pipeline, yet contractual and transit issues cast doubts on its readiness to sign up, Barysch states.
Iraq is another potential supplier for the project, but a number of obstacles exist – particularly how to share the revenues between Baghdad and the gas-rich Kurdish region in the north.
Though the pipeline could help the EU to develop stronger ties with these countries and help relations with Turkey as its membership bid stagnates, the EU ultimately ''has limited influence over many of the make-or-break issues for Nabucco,'' the paper concludes.
