EU-Russia relations have entered a new phase, she claims – characterised by co-operation in some areas and open confrontation in others. Russia has become a test case for the EU-27's ability to formulate and follow a coherent foreign policy, she adds.
The EU needs to revise its Russian policy in a way that keeps all 27 member states happy, and thus the first task is to reconcile internal differences, Barysch believes. She claims that the EU should focus on forging common positions on energy issues, missiles and Kosovo, as well as planning for the post-Putin period.
Major disagreements between the EU and Russia abound, the CER paper observes – on questions such as Russia's opposition to UN plans for Kosovo's independence, energy supply, a new EU-Russia treaty, the Estonian war memorial, the Litvinenko dispute in the UK, and the Polish meat saga, among other trade issues.
The author thus claims that following the Samara summit, the EU should abandon its objective of forging a "strategic partnership based on shared values" as it is no longer viable. She deplores the EU's recent reaction to growing Russian assertiveness, labelling it "a mixture of complacency, befuddlement and wishful thinking".
In defining a new policy approach, the EU's expectations need to be more realistic and focus on energy, trade, security issues and foreign policy. To achieve this, she calls for more exchange of reporting and analysis on Russia between member states in order to better understand diverging points of view. Unity is vital here, as Russia is constantly seeking to divide the Union, Barysch says.
She adds that, in defining its policy, the EU must accept that Russia does not want to be "like Europe" and stop "pretending" that it can convert it to pluralism and liberalism, as this creates unrealistic expectations in Europe and fuels resentment in Russia.
Regarding energy, Barysch argues that Russia's growing influence over EU markets is not a problem, providing that Gazprom respects EU rules on transparency and competition. Although the EU "should not panic" about energy security, it needs a forward-looking debate about energy supply, she adds. Bilateral deals between Russia and individual member states are ultimately harmful for Europe's long-term energy security, she argues.
The paper states that future EU action should include the following:
- Continued support for Russia's civil-society organisations and NGOs;
- protest whenever Russia violates human rights or democratic principles, as concrete criticism is "effective";
- questioning Russia's commitment to the WTO if it continues to impose unilateral export tariffs and import bans that affect EU business, and;
- further liberalisation of the EU energy market and increased use of competition policy to ensure that Gazprom's role does not become a problem.
Barysch concludes that formulating a coherent and realistic policy towards Russia must be a priority for the EU. Europe must scale back its policy ambitions, and concentrate on achieving Russian co-operation on urgent issues such as Kosovo.
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