As expected, Czech Enlargement Commissioner Štefan Füle said Iceland had been given the green light by the Commission after fulfilling the Copenhagen criteria for EU membership (stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy and human rights, the existence of a functioning market economy and ability to take on the obligations of membership).
The Commission's opinion takes account of political, economic and legal criteria. In all these respects, Iceland's performance was deemed satisfactory, hence the positive recommendation.
Yet Füle's leitmotiv was that "there is no short-cut to enlargement". He repeated that in future decision-making he would only take into account factual progress towards membership.
Managing expectations
With the ball now in member states' court, the commissioner was asked about possible setbacks stemming from the Icesave repayment problem (see 'Background').
Füle conveyed the message that bilateral problems should not impinge on consideration of whether a country is abiding by the EU rulebook.
"There is no direct linkage between the bilateral talks on one side and the Commission opinion on the other side," he said.
However, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands might not be so keen to stick to the EU rulebook, as the intensity of talks not only on Iceland's EU bid but also the IMF dispute has shown.
Moreover, even if Iceland's participation in the European Economic Area (EEA) puts it in an advantageous position in terms of transposing the acquis communautaire's rules on the internal market, the Commission's opinion nonetheless highlighted areas where progress is still necessary.
One such area is the independence of the judiciary. The report claims that "the predominance given to the Minister of Justice and Human Rights in judicial appointments, given the consultative role of the Evaluation Committee and Supreme Court, raises questions in terms of the effective independence of judges".
Another area of concern relates to conflict of interest. The report states that following the financial crisis, questions have been asked about possible "conflicts of interest in Iceland’s public life, such as close links between the political class and the business community, especially in light of the country’s small population and isolated location".
Accession talks could also stumble upon issues such as fisheries, rural development, free movement of capital and financial services.
However, Iceland's most significant hurdle on the road to accession could be the Eurosceptiscism diffused at both the popular and party levels. Here, Brussels has very limited leverage.
A series of polls carried out between August 2005 and September 2009 by various survey groups show that although there is support for starting accession negotiations, the majority of Icelanders consistently oppose full membership.
At political level, this situation is reflected by the Left-Green Movement and the Independence Party's reluctance to embrace the European cause.
