The turnout of 43% may appear low, but this could be explained by the frequency of local, parliamentary and presidential elections, coupled with difficulties deciphering the real power of the presidency (see 'Background').
According to analysts, the first round of elections offers three clear indications on the evolution of Croatian politics. Firstly, it is seen as a defeat for Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor and her party, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ, EPP-affiliated). Conservative candidate Andrija Hebrang came in third with only 12% of the vote.
The sound defeat also appears to have brought back into politics former Prime Minister Ivo Sanader, who surprisingly resigned last July (EurActiv 02/07/09). On 3 January 2010, he stated that the HDZ is "a winning party and not a party that wins 12% of the vote". On the following day, the HDZ party leadership voted, by sixteen votes to three, to expel him from the party.
Also, the polls show the advancement of populist candidate Milan Bandic, who moved successfully from his electoral constituency of Zagreb, of which he is mayor, onto the national scene. Although he did not garner even half of the support of Josipovic, he hopes to attract votes from disillusioned HDZ supporters.
Bandic can also bank on a considerable number of Roman Catholic believers. On 2 January he was received by the Archbishop of Zagreb for a two-hour long conversation. The Catholic church traditionally plays an important role in Croatian politics (EurActiv 05/11/09).
But more importanty, the polls legitimise the expectations of social democratic candidate Josipovic as the likely winner. The professor and musician obtained 32.44% of the vote. He now appears to have substantial room for manoeuvre, especially considering that his rival does not have the organisation of an established party to support him.
