ECAS report: Feared labour exodus from the East a no-show

Among the numerous implications of the May 2004 enlargement of the EU by ten new member states, the opening of the borders and the projected flooding of the EU-15 labour markets with cheap Eastern workforce has generally been perceived as the most worrying. With the memories of a divided Europe weighing heavy on the minds of the public both in the East and the West, the accession of ten new countries - eight of them post-Communist - was feared to unleash a massive migration flow. 

Fuelling these public fears further has been the prospect of the EU's future enlargement, with candidates as big and poor as Turkey waiting in the wings. While the exodus of workers from the East never happened, most member states have been holding on to their respective labour market emergency brakes, if only in light of Turkey's candidacy.

To ward off crises in their respective labour markets, several old EU member states agreed to introduce "transitional measures" which placed restrictions on the free movement rights of the "newcomers" (the citizens of Cyprus and Malta were exempted, ie no such measures applied to them). 

These "transitional measures" derive from Articles 1-6 of EEC Regulation No 1612/68 on the freedom of movement of workers within the Community. They apply to citizens of the 8 new member states (EU-8) who wish to enter into employment agreements with employers in the EU-15 (again, the self-employed, the students, the tourists and the pensioners are exempted).

During the "transitional period", which lasts a maximum of seven years (ie until 2011), the EU-15 states may maintain their respective national rules or bi- and multilateral agreements with regard to their labour markets. Under the so-called 2+3+2 years scenario, all EU-15 states apply national measures between 2004 and 2006. Following a non-binding review by the Commission of the European labour market situation in 2006, each old member state will have the right to either continue applying its national measures (after having notified the Commission) or to adopt the relevant EU provisions. By 2009, all national measures relating to labour market access should be phased out, except in cases where the unrestricted movement of labour may cause disturbances (or the threat thereof) in the local labour market. The year 2011 should witness the elimination of all related transitional measures.

According to estimates, the aggregate migration potential of the EU-8 states is around 1% of their current population. However, the actual migration figures show that the level of migration from the EU-8 to the EU-15 states fell below 1%, while only a "very marginal number of western workforce took advantage of the Central European market".

The main destinations for migrant EU-8 workers were Ireland and the UK, while at the same time the "intra-EU-8 movement" was the most marked among the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia.