While EU leaders are congratulating themselves over Tadic's victory, analysts point out that things could have turned out very differently.
The pro-European politician's less than three percentage point lead over Nikolic reveals a major split in opinion among Serbs as to where their country's future lies – to the East with Russia, its largest trading partner, or to the West with the EU. "To a significant extent, this is actually the fault of the Europeans," South-East Europe expert Armando Garcia-Schmidt of the Bertelsmann Stiftung told EurActiv.
He believes that Europe's lack of a coherent strategy towards the Balkans "leads to all sorts of missed opportunities" and means that all the EU can ultimately do is "hope that things will turn out all right down there".
Public bickering within the EU ahead of the elections (regarding the bloc's ties with Serbia and the future status of the country's breakaway province Kosovo) made it impossible for the Union to send a clear and united message to Belgrade.
While some EU members wanted to encourage Serb voters to back the pro-EU Tadic by accelerating Serbia's progress towards EU membership, others, such as Belgium and the Netherlands, insisted the signing of a cooperation agreement (SAA), seen as a first step towards candidate status, should be delayed until the country cooperates fully with the UN war crimes tribunal by extraditing former war criminals (EurActiv 29/01/08).
"The upshot was a stale and faded offer that remained indecisive even with regard to the simple subject of making it easier to get a visa, and thus provided ammunition for the opponents of Serbia's pro-Europeans," said Garcia-Schmitt.
The re-election of Tadic does not appear to have made things any clearer for the EU. While with him in power, it should prove easier to avoid any escalation with regard to Kosovo's imminent unilateral declaration of independence, there is still no agreement on how EU member states will deal with the province after its secession (EurActiv 10/09/07).
Romania and Cyprus announced last week (31 January) that they would not recognise a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo. They, as well as other countries such as Spain, Greece and Slovakia, fear the move could set a precedent for separatist movements elsewhere.
Cyprus, a small island that is in itself divided, also refused to declare itself in favour of a planned EU police and justice mission to Kosovo, which Serbia opposes (EurActiv 14/01/08).
The mission nevertheless received the preliminary go-ahead from ministers on 4 February, as Cyprus took advantage of a so-called "constructive abstention" mechanism, meaning that Nicosia will not participate in the mission, but will not block it.
It has yet to be decided when the 1,800-strong mission, which will take over from UN troops, will be deployed. EU members are still hoping for formal approval from the UN Security Council, but with Russia's opposed to Kosovo's independence, this is not expected to happen any time soon.
"The Europeans will also have to cross their fingers that 'things will turn out all right' after the forthcoming declaration of independence by Kosovo," said Garcia-Schmitt.
