Turkey's EU bid: a 'third way' looming?

Denmark's Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen has to date taken a relatively cautious course. He said that while there is no reason Turkey should not join the EU if it fulfills all the necessary political criteria, "the start of the talks does not automatically mean EU membership [...] If Turkey fulfills what is expected of it, it will be a different Turkey", he said. On other occasions Rasmussen stressed the long transition period to membership.

Austrian President Heinz Fischer, clearly heeding the message from an Austrian public that is mostly against Turkey joining the EU, said that "I believe that negotiations with Turkey should start, but under the condition that a date for its possible full-fledged membership in the bloc be clearly indicated". Stressing that Turkey's EU accession was an "extremely emotional issue" for Austrians, Fischer said inOctober 2004 that "it is too early to talk about Turkey's maturity for the EU". 

The Netherlands remains strongly divided over the issue. The country with the second largest Muslim population in Europe in terms of percentage (6%, compared with 7% in France and 3% in Britain) is struggling hard to cope with the potentially explosive issues of religion, immigration and terrorism, especially in the wake of the murder of filmmaker Theo van Gogh. The Dutch, who will chair the December EU summit as holders of the rotating Presidency, expect the talks with Turkey to begin in the second half of 2005. At the same time, the political signals from the Hague remain mixed a month to the day of the summit decision.

Cyprus may turn out to be another wildcard in the EU pack. "In principle we are in favour of Turkey's candidacy [...] because we are convinced that a truly European Turkey will be a factor of stability in our region and a secure link between Europe and the Middle East," said Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos. However, he said that Cyprus's support was conditional on Turkey recognising the government of Cyprus. "Turkey must show that it understands and accepts that the setting of a date for the commencement of accession negotiations entails obligations towards the European Union and each member of the European family and consequently Cyprus too," said Papadopoulos.

However, Turkey immediately responded by declaring that it has no intention to recognise EU member Cyprus.

In mid-November, French President Jacques Chirac openly raised the possibility of a "third option" for Turkey. "There is a third hypothesis that in three to four years, things have progressed but there are still obstacles that we will not surmount. We will therefore need to find another solution, to create a sufficiently strong link for our ambitions for peace and co-operation but without integration into the EU," said Chirac. 

Asked about Chirac's statement, Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the London-based Centre for European Reform, said that it was "probably directed towards a domestic audience, reassuring the French that only a stable and democratic Turkey will ever become a full member of the EU". Polls in France show that a majority of the public is opposed to Turkey's EU accession. Chirac has promised to put the question to a referendum.

"Fact is: the objective of EU negotiations is membership, nothing less," Barysch explained. "But the Commission's report already made it clear that if Turkey was to slide towards Islamism or unravel democratic reforms, negotiations would be suspended. It is in this situation that the EU may have to start thinking about how to tie Turkey to Europe without offering full EU membership."

Chirac's reference to a "third option" was notable: the French president - himself a supporter of Turkey's cause - has been known to be at odds even with his "original" party, the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) over Turkey. Nicolas Sarkozy, the next UMP leader, remains an advocate of granting Turkey a "special partnership" status instead. "On December 17 the perspective of partnership must feature in the decision of the council of ministers," Sarkozy said. He said that he was opposed to Turkey's entry "not because it is a Muslim country but because Europe must concentrate on the enlargement which has already taken place".

Speaking for Luxembourg, the holder of the EU's rotating presidency in the first half of 2005, Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said that "we are ready to start negotiations [with Turkey] in the first half of 2005". 

The United States "strongly but discretely" supports Turkey's EU bid, said the US Ambassador to the EU, Rockwell Schnabel. "Membership is an interior issue of the EU. They will make the decision. So we have to be silent. Our stance is well known. The support for Turkey given by our many presidents and administrations has never changed. It isn't reflected much in public opinion; however, our support continues," said Schnabel.