Turkish voters are called to the ballots on 22 July to vote for a new parliament and determine the new government. With Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan leading the polls, the AKP is tipped to win enough seats in the Grand National Assembly to govern alone.
Erdogan has even threatened to withdraw from politics if his AK party fails to win enough votes to come to power without the support of a coalition partner.
According to an opinion poll published on 19 July, the AKP could get 42.6% of votes, leaving the opposition parties, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), with 17.3% and 12.5% respectively.
This would also mean that the MHP is likely to make it past the 10% threshold and win seats in parliament. Only two political parties, the AKP and the CHP, were able to secure seats in parliament following the 2002 elections.
However, it remains uncertain whether the early elections, triggered by the political row over the presidential elections, can help to resolve the current issues. Unless the AKP manages to secure a two-thirds majority in parliament, it will face the same problems to get support for its candidate. Nevertheless, the AKP has announced it will not insist on their current candidate, Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül, and may agree to an alternative one.
Sinan Ülgen, chairman of the Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM) in Istanbul and an expert on EU-Turkey relations, thinks that the outcome of the elections will help the country to overcome its crisis.
Speaking to EurActiv in an exclusive interview, he said: ''If the AKP gets re-elected, progress towards the objective of full membership will remain high on the agenda.'' However, he holds that the ''most significant shortcoming of the AKP’s EU policy'' is the failure to enhance Turkey’s image in Europe. He added: ''Political leaders are aware of this problem and the incoming government is likely to put much more emphasis on this dimension of the relationship, provided that full membership remains on track.''
