Speaking during a pre-electoral debate on French public television station France 2, the president of the liberal MoDem party, François Bayrou, said his party would oppose the re-appointment of Barroso, which needs the endorsement of the European Parliament.
On this subject Bayrou was in tune with European Greens co-president Daniel Cohn-Bendit, who long ago launched a 'Stop Barroso' campaign (EurActiv 30/03/09) . He also struck similar chords with Socialist leader Martine Aubry, also present at the debate, who has campaigned in past months to see Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, the former Danish prime minister and current president of the Party of European Socialists (PES), to succeed Barroso.
Aubry explained that the PES had not come up with an alternative candidate so far because Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Zapatero had insisted that he would back Barroso out of Iberian solidarity, amid fears that the EPP would otherwise come up with "some Berlusconi friend". According to recent polls, Berlusconi would send one of the largest national group to the European People's Party (EPP), expected to be the largest group in the next European Parliament.
Indeed, the Parliament is expected to discuss and even decide on who the next president of the European Commission will be during its first session, starting on 14 July (EurActiv 20/03/09).
But Bayrou seems to be in disagreement with Graham Watson, until now leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) group in the European Parliament, who pleaded on Thursday for an agreement between the Liberals and the centre-right EPP.
"I predict a centre-right conservative majority […] Socialists will be demoralised by this vote and this would open the door to a new order in Parliament, of the Liberals and the centre-right," Watson was quoted as saying by Reuters. Watson himself is candidate for the post of next European Parliament president (EurActiv 08/01/09), for a full five-year mandate. Observers say he is counting on EPP support.
According to the latest poll, the EPP will have 262 members and the Liberals 85. Counting on the support of a new group built around the British Conservatives (EurActiv 02/06/09) and credited with 53 members, the pro-Barroso camp would appear to have 400 members, more than enough for a simple majority in the 736-member assembly. Latest polls indicate ten seats for French liberals from MoDem.
However, as the ballot is secret, the re-election of Barroso cannot be taken for granted. If an informal poll carried out by forecast site www.predict09.eu is anything to go by, popular support for Barroso is in free-fall. Out of the 4,678 visitors to the site to participate in the poll on who should be the next European Commission president, Rasmussen came out strongly on top with 50%, Monica Frassoni and Daniel Cohn-Bendit of the Greens were second with 22%, liberal former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt followed with 9%, and Barroso came just fourth with 8% of the vote.
