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Lisbon Treaty shadow looms large over UK elections

Published 07 May 2009 - Updated 22 December 2011
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Despite having already ratified the Lisbon Treaty, the issue of UK ratification could come back to haunt this June's European elections, as the Conservative Party has made it a central plank of its electoral strategy. The extreme-right British National Party may also make use of the treaty issue to reap gains in what is generally expected to be a Eurosceptic majority vote.

Since taking the reins of the Conservative party, David Cameron has consistently used the Lisbon Treaty issue as a stick with which to beat UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Indeed, in recent weeks, Cameron and other leading Tories have upped the ante. 

Tory foreign affairs spokesman William Hague, last week described Brown's refusal to hold a referendum as a betrayal of voter trust which "debases the coinage of politics". As part of the Tories' election campaign, Cameron condemened the prime minister for "flip-flopping", and promised that if the "constitution [Lisbon Treaty] were not in force at the time of the general election, a Conservative government would hold a referendum on it, urge a 'no' vote, and reverse Britain's ratification if successful". 

To emphasise the point even further, the Lisbon Treaty is the first issue raised on the Tories' election campaign website for the 2009 elections. They have also launched an online campaign for an Irish-style referendum. 

'Cameron doesn't have anything else to talk about,' say critics 

Cameron's critics argue that his electoral strategy is designed to attract nationalist sentiment in the UK, while also covering up the fact that the Tories lack a coherent policy platform for the European elections. 

"Resuscitating the Lisbon issue amounts to little more than flogging a dead horse," one analyst told EurActiv. 

Prominent British Liberal MEP Andrew Duff claimed that Cameron has taken this line because "he doesn't have anything else to talk about". 

Duff told EurActiv that the Tory leader is constrained by his party's powerful Eurosceptic wing from elaborating policy plans at the European level. "These elections will expose Cameron as someone whose only focus is on the national," he concluded. 

Irish European Affairs Minister Dick Roche delivered an equally critical assessment. Speaking to EurActiv, he said that "these elections should be about contemporary EU issues," and argued that "the EU's critics in certain member states who complain about the democratic deficit are in fact contributing to that deficit by using these European Parliament elections for something other than their real purpose". 

A Eurosceptic vote 

European elections in the UK are more often than not an outlet for the country's considerable body of Eurosceptic opinion. 

In the 2004 elections, the Tories won 27 seats to Labour's 19, while the UK's most strongly pro-EU party, the Liberal Democrats, won as many seats as the UK Independence Party (UKIP), whose goal is to withdraw Britain from the EU. 

There has been widespread speculation that the far-right British National Party (BNP) could make gains at this year's elections. Labour party chair Harriet Harman earlier this year warned against the "very real risk" of the party winning more seats, warning mainstream parties that the BNP threat "cannot be ignored". 

UKIP, meanwhile, is expected to post losses following their huge success in 2004. 

Andrew Duff believes that the UK is experiencing a nationalistic phase in its history, as a result of which "the majority of UK parties are now opposed to the EU". 

However, the Liberal MEP believes the multitude of anti-EU voices could, in effect, drown each other out. "The anti-European terrain is very crowded this year," he said, "but voters could be puzzled by the proliferation". 

Positions: 

Regarding the Conservatives' use of the Lisbon Treaty as an electoral gambit, Andrew Duff MEP told EurActiv that "Cameron doesn't have anything else to talk about. He can't put forward a plan for economic recovery because he doesn't have one; he can't promote his green credentials – something he would dearly love to do – because he's anti-EU integration and he knows the only way to combat climate change is at the EU level". 

According to a report by the British House of Commons Library, "there has been some speculation that the BNP might win a seat in the 2009 EP elections. Harriet Harman recently said that Labour was gearing up to stop Nick Griffin, the BNP chairman, from becoming an MEP in the North-West. According to Ms Harman, the BNP need 8% of the vote to break through into the European Parliament". 

Jonathan Isaby of the influential ConservativeHome  website reported that "in answer to the inevitable questions from the media about what the party would do if the Treaty has come into force across the EU if and when Cameron becomes prime minister and forms a government, Mr Cameron pointed out that people were saying the same thing a year ago, that it would have been ratified across the EU, 'but here we are a year later and they still haven't [...] so let's concentrate on the here and now'". 

Next steps: 
  • 4-7 June 2009: European elections
Background: 

The UK ratified the Lisbon Treaty by parliamentary majority in June 2008, the same month that Ireland voted 'no' by popular referendum (EurActiv 26/06/08). 

However, the UK Conservatives have consistently attacked Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown for failing to hold a referendum on the issue, arguing that the Lisbon Treaty is merely a "rebranded" version of the European Constitution, which Brown pledged to put to the people in 2005. 

Conservative leader David Cameron, who all current polls predict will be the UK's next PM, has promised to hold a referendum on Lisbon if he comes to power before the treaty is ratified in all member states and passed into EU law. 

A general election in the UK will be held at the latest in June 2010, though some political analysts believe the beleaguered Brown government could fall before then. 

As this year's European elections will be held under the Nice Treaty, the UK's total number of seats will fall from 78 to 72. 

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