Increasingly European issues
In the past eight months, Europe has witnessed multiple crises, notably the institutional dilemma sparked by the Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty, the international geopolitical emergencies in Georgia and the Middle East and the ongoing financial and economic crisis, which resulted in widespread social unrest across Europe.
Consequently, politicians argue that European citizens increasingly believe that economic issues, as well as the challenges of energy security and climate change, do have a European dimension, and will accordingly turn out in greater numbers at this year's elections, giving European democracy renewed vigour.
German Socialist MEP Jo Leinen told EurActiv that the opportunity for European parties to present the "European dimension" to voters has "never been better".
However, despite agreeing that such an opportunity exists for European parties, Sebastian Kurpas, a senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels, is less convinced that parties can successfully exploit this fact to increase voter turnout. Speaking to EurActiv, he said everything "depends on whether European political parties can credibly present the EU as an instrument that helps solving the crisis".
The CEPS analyst went on to note that "all the parties have slogans in their manifestos which talk about responses to the economic crisis, but the question is whether they will be able to develop it beyond mere slogans into something concrete".
In reality, Kurpas believes the elections will once again play out like 27 different national elections, a point echoed by Agnieszka Łada, a research fellow at the Polish Institute of Public Affairs. Łada told EurActiv that "people just won't see the connection between these crises and the European Union," and expects them to vote based on their national preferences.
Civil society grabs early stage
The build-up to these elections has also seen an unprecedented engagement by NGOs, many of whom published detailed policy documents early enough to influence the electoral programmes of European parties.
Fintan Farrell, chair of the EU Civil Society Contact Group, told EurActiv that this reflects the determination of civil society groups to get their arguments "heard in the pre-election debates" and ensure that "key concerns impacting on the everyday life of EU residents are brought to the attention of the candidates".
He added: "We'll also be looking to ensure that they will be translated not only into political promises, but into concrete policy commitments."
Well-known faces and new parties
The individuals and parties dominating the 2009 elections may provide a few surprises. In France, most notably, two current ministers will stand in the elections (EurActiv 27/01/09).
According to officials in the Assemblée Nationale's UMP group, in recent months French President Nicolas Sarkozy has repeatedly urged the party to send well-known politicians to Brussels in a bid to improve the way the French electorate perceives the European Union. Sarkozy recently described the decision to put two ministers, Michel Barnier and Rachida Dati, at the top of electoral lists for les européennes as "truly historic".
However, diplomatic sources in Brussels told EurActiv that this was merely empty rhetoric, and in fact Dati is effectively being "outsourced" to Brussels.
Experts do agree on one thing: this year's Parliament will have more young and more female MEPs than ever before.
A campaign launched by the European Women's Lobby to get more women involved in decision-making has already gathered more than 10,000 signatures, including those of very prominent politicians. The first president of the European Parliament, French politician Simone Veil, supported the initiative, noting that since 1979 "women have remained a minority" in European politics.
New parties, too, may be a feature of 2009. The British Conservative Party is to break its ties with the EPP (EurActiv 12/01/09) and may form a new centre-right party with a more Eurosceptic twist, providing it can find allies.
Controversial anti-Lisbon Treaty group Libertas aims to run candidates in a number of European countries, and may win seats from other fringe groups. Meanwhile, the Union for a Europe of the Nations (UEN) group may struggle to achieve the numbers required to maintain group status when they lose eight MEPs from Alleanza Nazionale.
Indeed, Jo Leinen acknowledged that "the Parliament will be more colourful" after these elections, though he expects the overall balance between mainstream parties and smaller groups to remain the same.
Will new trends make a difference?
While these trends may yet play a significant part in making this year's elections more dynamic, high-profile figures within the EU remain sceptical as to whether a genuinely reinvigorated European debate will take place while current institutional structures remain unchanged.
John Bruton, a former Irish taoiseach and current EU ambassador to the USA, told EurActiv that in this election, "people will see that the European Union has been very busy and active" in dealing with a series of crises: more so than in the past.
However, he argued that this still may not be enough to truly reinvigorate European democracy. "One of the things I regret – speaking personally - is that we don't have a single European election, we have 27 national elections to the European Parliament.”
Bruton concluded that there’s still work to be done in building an “emotional constituency for the European Union”.
Jo Leinen, meanwhile, believes it’s still not too late for European parties to take advantage of the many crises. The month of May will be decisive, he concluded.
