Voters traditionally consider the stakes at European elections to be lower than in national elections. Unlike national elections, European elections do not, strictly speaking, lead to the formation of a new government, and the areas where the European Parliament exercises most influence seem technical and dull, according to Hugo Brady of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank.
With lower stakes, Brady says voters are prepared to take greater electoral risks, opting for parties outside the traditional mainstream. These smaller parties can usually hope to elect one or perhaps two MEPs, and occasionally even more.
Once a small party has gained one or more mandates, it will attempt to form a Parliament group or join an existing one. Though some non-affiliated MEPs (so-called 'non-inscrits') might disagree, it is generally acknowledged that real power and influence in the Parliament resides in the groups.
Experts point out that it is often in the interests of both the existing groups and the small parties to join forces. In exchange for increasing the size and clout of the group, small parties can negotiate their way to positions of importance, such as getting some of their MEPs appointed as rapporteurs or committee chairs.
Pirates and personalities
Examples of small parties flirting with "big" groups abound. In Sweden, the extraordinary movement building behind the Pirate Party (EurActiv 22/04/09) could see the party outdo previous predictions and win two seats. This would amount to an astonishing success for what is effectively a single-issue party.
Speaking to EurActiv in April, the 'Pirates' indicated that the liberal ALDE grouping might be a suitable home for them, but recent reports in the Swedish media hint that they are also courting the European Greens.
In Bulgaria, a small party is already being touted as a future member of the British Conservative-led splinter group from the leading centre-right European Peoples' Party (EPP) (EurActiv 02/06/09). Order, Law and Justice (RZS), a recently-established maverick party with a populist anti-corruption platform built around the personality of Yane Yanev, may cross the 5% barrier and send an MEP to Stasbourg, analysts say, as quoted by Dnevnik, EurActiv's partner in Bulgaria (see EurActiv LinksDossier on the elections in Bulgaria).
According to reports, Yanev has been in close contact with Geoffrey Van Orden, a British Conservative MEP known as the architect of the new parliamentary coalition, in view of a future partnership. Indeed, the new conservative coalition will need members from seven EU countries to obtain the statute of a political group, and this prospective Bulgarian partner appears to be most welcome.
The conservative conundrum
Anti-Lisbon Treaty platform Libertas, the brainchild of Irish multimillionaire Declan Ganley (EurActiv 16/03/09), has added an unprecedented – and some would say welcome – air of controversy to these elections.
While Libertas says it will win enough seats to form its own group outright, in all likelihood it will struggle to win more than a handful of mandates, perhaps even less than that, according to recent polls. Experts say it is even uncertain whether Ganley will attract enough votes to win a seat himself.
As a result, the Libertas movement, which at the very least has succeeded in creating a stir around these elections, will need to consider its options. One Libertas source told EurActiv that joining the new conservative group is the preferred option, given the anti-Lisbon stance of both organisations.
Along with Libertas, the new conservative group is the great talking point of these elections. While many leading politicians consider the announced move away from the EPP-ED to be a disastrous tactical mistake on the part of Britain's Tories, they themselves are certain to find enough members from enough countries to become a significant force in the Parliament.
The Greens might spring surprise
The Greens, who are expected to gain a few more seats in the new Parliament, could emerge as the surprise package as citizens and former politicians often prefer to cast their protest vote to the Greens, rather than the far-left or far-light.
In a move that surprised many, former Czech President Václav Havel gave his backing to the Czech Green Party led by Martin Bursík. After spending the past months in turmoil, and with intra-party rivalry helping to trigger the fall of Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek's government, the Green Party (SZ) has received a ringing endorsement from Václav Havel that party leaders hope will help steady the ship on the eve of European elections, analysts said.
"Under the leadership of Martin Bursík, this party was able to achieve a number of productive changes to the government, even more than their supporters could have hoped for," Havel wrote in an e-mail to The Prague Post, explaining his backing for the party.
In a poll completed in early May, the STEM polling agency found that three percent of voters will support the Green Party for the June 5-6 European parliamentary elections, trailing the Social Democrats (ČSSD) with 24 percent and Civic Democrats (ODS) with 21 percent, among others. The poll was completed before Havel's endorsement.
Havel, who is well-respected across Europe, could inflluence the protest vote in other countries.
The far-right bounces back?
Speculation has been rife that the elections will see an increase in votes for far-right parties. In Holland, Austria, the UK, France and Bulgaria, for example, far-right parties are expected to make gains.
As reported by EurActiv, discussions are well underway to reform a far-right Parliament grouping, along the lines of the ITS group (Independence Tradition Sovereignty) which collapsed in 2007 (EurActiv 17/03/09).
These efforts have been spearheaded by French Front National MEP Bruno Gollnisch, who has been busy travelling across the continent finding allies, and is believed to have a tacit agreement with, among others, the British National Party (BNP), Bulgarian nationalists Ataka and Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ).
While Gollnisch has been reluctant to say much before the elections – it is touch and go as to whether he will find 25 MEPs from seven countries - a British insider source recently told EurActiv that there is a strong possibility that his allies will reach the threshold.
