Leading MEPs this week formally demanded that Ireland hold a second Lisbon Treaty referendum in early 2009, echoing comments made in October 2008 (EurActiv 09/10/08).
Without Lisbon, "European citizens will be deprived of important new democratic rights" at next year's European elections, said German MEP Jo Leinen, head of the European Parliament's Constitutional Affairs Committee.
Parliamentarians fear that without a second Irish vote, the elections would be held in a "constitutional limbo": a fear that is shared by leading politicians across Europe (EurActiv 18/11/08).
Moreover, a number of EU countries, most prominent among which is Spain, are privately said to be furious at the prospect of losing seats at the elections, further increasing pressure on Irish lawmakers to provide a timely solution to the Lisbon impasse.
Founder of the European Policy Centre (EPC) Stanley Crossick neatly summarised these positions: "I believe it essential that the Irish Government holds a second referendum at the latest in March 2009, even if the result is the end of the Lisbon Treaty. Having regard to the changed world circumstances, the critical problems of financial meltdown and economic recession, with Europe leading the fight, our Irish friends should appreciate that a strong Europe externally is critical for them and all of us. Only another incompetent performance by the Irish Government would lead to a second rejection." (BlogActiv 15/11/08).
Hopes for a spring re-vote intensified when a recent Irish poll revealed that a swing to the 'yes' side has taken place since the referendum defeat last June (EurActiv 17/11/08).
However, the likelihood of a springtime 'flash referendum' in Ireland appears minimal given the current record impopularity of the Irish government. Public support for Brian Cowen's administration has collapsed to the lowest level since polling began.
Constitutionally, it is also a question of timing. For Ireland and Europe to implement the Lisbon Treaty's provisions in time for the elections, the second vote would have to take place in early 2009, according to Joseph Curtin, a senior researcher at the Irish Institute of European Affairs (IIEA).
Speaking to EurActiv, Curtin said it would be a "big surprise" if the Irish government announced a spring referendum to its European Partners at the EU Council summit in December. "It doesn't seem to be on the agenda given the government's current approval ratings," said Curtin.
Irish Foreign Affairs Minister Micheál Martin indicated that Ireland would outline the "elements of a solution" at the summit.
