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Brussels seeks closer scrutiny of national economies

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Published 28 October 2010, updated 02 November 2010

A European Commission paper, seen be EurActiv, asks EU countries to present their economic reform plans earlier in the year alongside budget discipline measures, marking the latest attempt by Brussels to scrutinise Europe's national economies in the wake of the Greek debt crisis.

The paper, dated 22 September, aims to assist member states in preparing reports on planned economic reforms that are to be submitted as part of the recently agreed 'semester' of economic surveillance.

The guidance paper emerges as European Union leaders gather in Brussels for a two-day summit aimed at streamlining the bloc's economic governance.

Under the Commission paper, national economic reform plans will have to be handed in "no later than end of April" and should include "forward-looking elements covering targets, bottlenecks and policy plans for at least three years," according to the paper, seen by EurActiv.

The draft National Reform Programmes (NRPs) should be sent to the Commission by 12 November, the document adds.

Giving teeth to 'Europe 2020'?

The national reform plans are part of the 'Europe 2020' strategy for long-term economic growth, endorsed by EU leaders in June.

The 2020 agenda puts innovation and green growth at the heart of its blueprint for competitiveness and proposes tighter monitoring of national reform programmes. It is meant to replace the Lisbon Strategy, adopted in 2000, which largely failed to turn the EU into "the world's most dynamic knowledge-based economy by 2010".

However, this time, Brussels believes it has more chance of getting reluctant governments to buy in to its new plan by making growth-enhancing reforms an integral part of the European 'semester' of economic surveillance that was agreed in the aftermath of the Greek sovereign debt crisis.

National governments will be asked to report about pro-growth policies alongside their draft budget plans, in order to make the two match in an "integrated assessment," said Amadeu Altafaj i Tarido, spokesperson for Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn.

For the Commission, the National Reform Programmes (NRPs) should set out how member states aim to meet their 'Europe 2020' targets on issues such as employment and R&D, and detail "which measures will be implemented, by when, by whom and with which budgetary consequences," according to the guidance paper.

The reform plans should be listed "in parallel to fiscal surveillance under the Stability and Growth Pact," the paper adds, arguing "this will ensure the overall consistency of EU policy advice by identifying the fiscal constraints within which member states' actions are to be developed".

However, reporting under the Pact and broader economic surveillance "will remain legally separate," said Altafaj i Tarido, with the two reports "submitted to the Commission simultaneously but separately".

This could be seen as a sweetener for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who expressed fears in March that closely linking pro-growth policies to budget discipline would make economic surveillance "unnecessarily political".

Peer review

An extended peer-review process will be triggered in January with the publication of the Commission's Annual Growth Survey, and is expected to culminate at the end of the new European 'semester' of economic surveillance, around June or July.

At this stage, EU finance ministers or heads of state would provide an assessment of National Reform Programmes and possible "country-specific guidance" to countries whose policies and budgets are out of line.

These recommendations would be issued "at a time when important budgetary decisions are still in a preparatory phase at the national level," Altafaj i Tarido stressed, allowing for "much more integrated assessment and insight into the interactions between policies".

Positions: 

Ann Mettler, director and co-founder of the Lisbon Council think-tank, said it was "promising" that national reforms would be undertaken as part of new 'European semester' of budgetary surveillance.

"Indeed, this is a key difference in comparison to the Lisbon Agenda, which was always divorced from public finances, which in hindsight was certainly a grave mistake with rather devastating consequences," Mettler told EurActiv.

"While the economic governance proposals tend to dominate the public debate and media focus, one should not underestimate the importance of the Europe 2020 Strategy and the National Reform Programmes. The structural reforms they entail will be the real drivers of sustainable growth and employment – far more than the institutional framework that is currently deliberated. Sanctions, crisis mechanisms and treaty changes do not create jobs, drive innovation or boost growth," she said. 

Fabian Zuleeg, chief economist at the European Policy Centre (EPC) think-tank in Brussels, said the inclusion of national reform programmes in the wider fiscal surveillance framework was "an improvement".

But he was sceptical about incentives to implement reforms at national level, saying it is "likely to be insufficient". "One shortcoming of Lisbon was that not enough political attention was on structural reforms at the European level, even though it is in my view clear that we need to look at all aspects of economic policymaking if we want to realise the Europe 2020 objectives, as well as achieving sound public finances," he told EurActiv.

Zuleeg doubts that there is "a clear route of how member states will be incentivised to make changes to their policies".

"I don't believe this is enough to leverage change in those member states where the NRPs have clear deficiencies," he said.

Next steps: 
  • 12 Nov. 2010: Deadline for member states to submit draft National Reform Programmes (NRPs).
  • Jan. 2011: Start of first 'European Semester' of economic surveillance.
  • March 2011: Review of draft NRPs by EU finance ministers (Ecofin Council) and the 27 EU heads of state (Spring Summit).
  • By end April 2011: EU countries to submit final version of NRPs to Commission, together with fiscal stability plans (Stability and Convergence Programmes).
  • June 2011: End of 'semester'. EU finance ministers (Ecofin Council) and heads of state (EU summit) to provide country-specific guidance in the form of council opinions on budgetary issues and policy recommendations on other issues.
Piloting national reforms: Rehn
Background: 

In March, EU leaders agreed on closer economic coordination in the EU in response to the Greek sovereign debt crisis.

To flesh out a consensus among themselves, EU leaders decided to launch a task force made up of the finance ministers from the 27 EU member states.

In September, the ministers agreed on a 'semester' of economic policy coordination that will allow EU countries to review each others' draft annual budgets before they are adopted at national level, with an early peer-review system aimed at preventing future crises.

The Task Force published its final report on 21 October, ahead of an EU summit which is expected to endorse the plans on 28-29 October.

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