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Central European economies lacking ‘consumer optimism’

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Published 14 August 2013

The Czech Republic escaped from recession in the second quarter while the European Union's other bigger eastern economies improved, though still looking short of consumer optimism needed to drive a stronger upturn

Headline numbers today (14 August) showed the Czechs as expected firmly back in positive territory with growth of 0.7% compared to the first quarter. Hungary grew 0.1% on the quarter and Poland 0.4%.

There was no breakdown but largely the pick-up is expected to have come from improvement in Germany and other larger euro zone countries to which the region's cheap and flexible businesses send much of their exports.

The Czech Statistics Office said that foreign trade was the biggest positive contributor, with exports up 1.4% year-on-year in the quarter, reflecting better-than-expected numbers elsewhere in Europe.

"Generally, we can say that exporters are now much more optimistic and see some recovery," said Zbynek Frolik, chief executive of Czech hospital bed maker Linet and a board member at the Czech Confederation of Industry.

The former communist region, pressing to catch up with its western neighbours, was one of Europe's few sources of more dynamic growth before the 2008 financial crisis and Poland has been the only EU economy to avoid recession since.

But for euro zone countries looking for a boost for the bloc's overall growth, as well as hard-pressed governments in Hungary and Poland, the signs are still mixed on whether consumers are ready to spend or borrow more.

A poll on Tuesday showed the Czech government's drive to cut spending - which has been among Europe's most aggressive and one substantial reason for its recession - made welfare cuts the biggest concern for 61% of ordinary Czechs.

Frolik, the bedmaker, while upbeat overall, said a domestic political crisis which now looks set to spark an early election this year was not helping business.

"It is also a question of restoring political stability," he said. "In an unstable situation it is hard to make any long-term strategic decisions and business stagnates."

Headache

Poland looks to be turning round quickly from a fall from grace which saw it narrowly avoid recession at the start of the year, the biggest economic headache of Prime Minister Donald Tusk's record six-years in office.

The economy accelerated to a 0.8% clip year-on-year and grew 0.4% on the quarter. Analysts said exports - helped by the zloty's roughly 30% fall from 2008 peaks - were again likely the driving factor.

"This year our company will post the highest sales in our 17-year history," said Zbigniew Wlodarczak, chief financial officer at Polish bus producer Solaris, which says it is now the third-largest supplier of buses in Germany.

"We have noticed a rise in demand from clients around Europe," he said.

Poland's central bank - widely criticised earlier for not cutting faster - has signalled an end to its cycle of monetary easing amid a growing conviction the economy will pick up further in the second half.

Its Czech and Hungarian counterparts are not so confident. The Prague central bank is still wavering over whether to intervene against the crown, while Budapest policymakers still look firmly set to cut further as Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government strives to reawaken the economy before elections next year.

The crown and the zloty both edged higher in morning trade, while the Hungarian forint was largely unchanged.

EurActiv.com with Reuters
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Background: 

Stagnant eurozone economies and growing unemployment rates across the EU have turned economic growth into a paramount need for Europe.

Under pressure from Germany, EU leaders have so far focussed their efforts on getting their accounts in order, committing to Draconian austerity plans and signing new treaties and adjustment plans mostly decided in Berlin.

The second quarter figures revealed by Eurostat have revealed that the eurozone has exited its record 18 months of economic contraction better than expected with a 0.3% growth in the currency area and in the wider European Union today.

>> Read: Finance Commissioner cautious as longest recession ends

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