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EU officials mull 'plan B' for Greece

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Published 28 June 2011, updated 01 July 2011

European Union officials are working on a contingency plan for Greece if its parliament rejects an austerity programme and the country cannot receive the next instalment of EU/IMF emergency loans, three eurozone sources said yesterday (27 June).

The sources said planning had been going on for several weeks and was designed to ensure Greece gets the liquidity needed to avoid default in the absence of the next, €12-billion tranche of its emergency loan package, due by mid-July.

As well as preventing default, the aim is to head off any contagion spreading from Greece to Ireland, Portugal and Spain, and the potential knock-on impact on Europe's banking system, with French and German banks large holders of Greek debt.

The plan is distinct from a French proposal for private sector involvement in a second Greek bailout programme and is being discussed despite European Commission President José Manuel Barroso and other senior EU officials repeatedly saying that "there is no Plan B for Greece".

"There's been thinking about contingency for some time, for several weeks," one senior eurozone finance official involved in the Greek bailout told Reuters. The other sources seconded that line, saying there was "active planning" to step in if the Greek parliament rejects the austerity programme (see 'Background').

"In this sort of situation, you can't afford not to think about what might happen next," the first source said.

The sources would not confirm in detail what the current plan involved, but said several options had already been dismissed, including an EU bridging loan to Athens.

"This option was discussed a few days ago, before the Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg [on 19-20 June], but I understand it's now been ruled out," a second source said.

They would not be drawn on what action banks might take, but British Prime Minister David Cameron made clear at an EU summit last week that banks needed to strengthen their balance sheets and be ready for any potential fallout from Greece.

"All European countries need to use the time that we have to strengthen banks and bank balance sheets and make sure they are meeting all of the requirements so that they are strong and can withstand any problems," he said.

"Banks right across Europe that have exposure to Greece [...] every bank needs to make absolutely clear what its exposure is."

Repayments due

Greece has to roll over €2.4 billion of six-month treasury bills on 15 July and €2.0 billion of three-month bills a week later. In August, it has €5.9 billion of five-year bonds maturing and must roll over €2.5 billion of bills.

Failure to refinance the debts would result in the first default since the euro zone was created in 1999.

One of the sources said the most likely way a default would be avoided in that case would be the extension of another loan from a third party, although they would not go into details.

"I find it difficult to believe that no bank, no institution, would be ready to extend Greece a further loan," the source said. "At the right terms, it will be done."

China has been buying eurozone debt and Chinese officials have said they intend to continue that trend. Chinese sources say the country remains interested in extending its commercial investment in Europe, such as taking stakes in companies.

'Necessary evil'

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou on Monday called on all political parties to back an unpopular five-year austerity plan, which international lenders have made a condition for further aid to Greece.

"Our vote is the only chance for the country to get back on its feet," Papandreou told legislators at the beginning of a parliamentary debate on the law.

He said a vote in the favour of the law would end the uncertainty hanging over Greece.

Efstathios Koutmeridis of the governing Socialists called the vote "a necessary evil".

Reportedly, one Socialist politician has threatened to vote against the measures, but one conservative opposition MP has pledged to support the government.

At a recent European People's Party summit, leaders from centre-right European parties failed to convince Antonis Samaras, the leader of the opposition New Democracy party, that he should support the austerity programme.

EurActiv with Reuters

Positions: 

Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn issued today (28 June) a statement warning Greece that if the country's parliament were to reject the revised economic programme, the result would be "immediate default".

"The only way to avoid immediate default is for parliament to endorse the revised economic programme," Rehn stated.

The commissioner also apparently refuted numerous suggestions publications in the international press by stating that there was "no plan B to avoid default" in Greece.

Asked by EurActiv if whether there was a 'Plan B' in case of default, Rehn's spokesperson Amadeo Alatafaj Tardio answered negatively.

Asked if it was possible for a country in default to still be a member of the euro zone, he said he was not going to answer a hypothetical question.

Billionaire investor George Soros thinks "a country" will eventually exit the euro zone and urged policymakers on Sunday to come up with a "plan B" that could rescue the European Union from looming economic collapse.

Speaking at a public event in Vienna, Soros, famous for making $1 billion by betting against the British pound in 1992, did not name any country he thought might exit the currency, but speculation is mounting about the fate of Greece as its politicians struggle to agree more austerity measures demanded by international lenders as the price for staving off bankruptcy.

While he called survival of the European Union a "vital interest to all," he said the EU needed structural changes to halt a process of disintegration.

Next steps: 
  • 29 June: Greek parliament to vote on proposed package of austerity measures.
Background: 

The Greek parliament will hold votes on 29-30 June on the austerity programme it has agreed with the EU, IMF and European Central Bank, which includes €6 billion of spending cuts and revenue increases this year alone.

The votes are expected to be extremely close, with opposition parties rigidly opposed. While the government has a majority of about five seats in parliament, EU officials are privately concerned that the vote could conceivably be lost.

If the programme is rejected, the EU will have no choice but to join the IMF in refusing to disburse the €12-billion payment – the fifth tranche of the €110 billion package of bilateral loans Greece agreed in May 2010.

While Greece may be able to roll over its treasury bills in July, it would not have enough money to redeem the €5.9 billion of five-year bonds it has falling due on 20 August.

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