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Eyes turn to ECB to defuse market tensions

Published 08 August 2011 - Updated 09 August 2011
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The European Central Bank is expected today (8 August) to buy Italian government bonds to support the euro zone's third largest economy and keep markets at bay until the currency bloc's own rescue fund can take over.

ECB sources said the central bank decided to buy Italian bonds to try to stem the euro zone's debt crisis from widening in a conference call yesterday evening (7 August).

As central bankers conferred, Germany and France released a statement that said the euro zone's bailout fund would soon be able to buy government bonds of debt strugglers Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet wants the policy-setting governing council to take a final decision on buying Italian paper after Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi announced new measures on Friday to speed up deficit reduction and hasten economic reforms, one source said.

"Trichet wants the governing council to make a final decision on purchases of Italian bonds. If the governing council agrees, the Eurosystem would start on Monday," the ECB source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Another source said the council would also discuss possible emergency liquidity measures to prevent money markets freezing.

The Eurosystem comprises the ECB and national central banks of the 17 countries that share the single currency.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy said they were committed to getting approval from their parliaments for new powers for the European Financial Stability Facility rescue fund by the end of September.

That will allow the EFSF to buy government bonds in the secondary market if the ECB thinks it is warranted and if euro zone member states agree, potentially absolving the ECB of the need to do so directly, something some members strongly oppose.

"France and Germany are confident that the ECB analysis will provide the appropriate basis for secondary market interventions as it will help determine the case when financial stability of the euro zone as a whole is at risk," the leaders said.

Their statement reiterated the agreement at last month's emergency euro zone summit which granted a second bailout to Greece, but the focus on the EFSF's ability to buy government bonds once the bloc's parliaments have ratified its new powers could act as an encouragement to the ECB to do the same in the interim.

Twin debt crises in Europe and the United States are causing global market turmoil and stoking fears of the rich world sliding back into recession.

Another source said the ECB meeting had been put back into the evening to see what measures U.S. authorities were prepared to take to calm markets after credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded Washington's AAA rating to AA+ on Friday.

"The important part of the picture now is the US," the second source said.

G7 To confer

Finance ministers of the Group of Seven major industrialised nations are to hold a teleconference late on Sunday (European time) to discuss a response to the crisis after senior officials conferred by telephone late on Saturday.

"I don't think that central banks can do very much in case of new trouble. What is in the discussion (in the ECB) is to calm money markets with fresh liquidity if necessary," the ECB source said.

The second source said: "What we can start doing tomorrow is buying bonds or put additional money in the market."

The ECB reactivated its controversial sovereign bond-buying programme last Thursday but has so far only bought small quantities of Irish and Portuguese bonds, seeking more front-loaded austerity measures from Italy.

Italian and Spanish 10-year bond yields spiked to 14-year highs when investors saw the central bank was not buying their paper.

Under pressure from his EU peers and the central bank, Berlusconi announced late on Friday plans to bring forward balancing the budget by one year to 2013, enshrine a balanced budget rule in the constitution and push through welfare and labour market reforms after talks with trade unions and employers.

Merkel and Sarkozy welcomed the new Italian plan.

"Especially the Italian authorities' goal to achieve a balanced budget a year earlier than previously envisaged is of fundamental importance," they said (see Joint Statement in Positions).

However, details of Italy's austerity drive are thin, leaving many analysts -- and maybe some in the ECB -- sceptical.

The ECB remains divided over whether to buy bonds at all, with four German, Dutch and Luxembourg members of the 23-member council opposed, ECB sources said. Even some of those in favour say Italy should do more to front-load its reforms.

After a week that saw $2.5 trillion wiped off global stock markets, political leaders are under pressure to reassure investors that Western governments have both the will and ability to reduce their huge and growing public debt loads.

That has raised pressure on the ECB to act to calm bond markets until the euro zone's 440-billion-euro rescue fund is empowered to intervene on secondary bond markets and give countries in difficulty precautionary credit lines.

It has also prompted widespread calls from economists and market analysts for the euro zone to at least double the size of the European Financial Stability Facility -- a move that EU paymaster Germany and its close ally France has rejected as unnecessary.

EurActiv with Reuters

Positions: 

Following is the full text of a joint statement issued on Sunday by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy on measures to tackle the euro zone debt crisis.

"President Sarkozy and Chancellor Merkel reiterate their commitment to fully implement the decisions taken by the heads of state and government of the euro area and the EU institutions on July 21st 2011.

"In particular, they stress the importance that parliamentary approval will be obtained swiftly by the end of September in their two countries.

"They welcome the recent measures announced by Italy and Spain with regard to faster fiscal consolidation and improved competitiveness. Especially the Italian authorities' goal to achieve a balanced budget a year earlier than previously envisaged is of fundamental importance. They stress that complete and speedy implementation of the announced measures is key to restore market confidence.

"As decided on July 21st, the effectiveness of the EFSF will be improved and its flexibility increased linked to appropriate conditionality, in particular through the following instruments: precautionary programme, finance recapitalization of financial institutions and to intervene in secondary markets on the basis of an ECB analysis recognizing the existence of exceptional financial market circumstances and risks to financial stability and on the basis of a decision by mutual agreement of the member states, in order to avoid contagion.

"In line with 21st July decisions, France and Germany are confident that the ECB analysis will provide the appropriate basis for secondary market interventions as it will help determine the case when financial stability of the eurozone as a whole is at risk."

Reuters asked several analysts what is needed from US, Europe and G20 to settle markets.

"I welcome the decisions taken over the weekend in Europe both at national level, in Italy and Spain to strengthen fiscal discipline and growth, and by the ECB regarding the active implementation of its Securities Markets Programme, Council President Herman Van Rompuy said in a Twitter message.

"These decisions will contribute to financial stability in the euro area. I also welcome the close cooperation at the global level of the G7 and the G20 to deal with the current challenges both the euro area and the USE are facing.

"I am heartened by the determination of all Heads of State and Government of the euro area to implement as a matter of priority all the decisions taken by the 21 July Summit. The early convening of a number of national parliaments confirms their determination. The urgent approval inter alia of our decisions on making the EFSF more efficient and more flexible is decisive to restore market confidence.

"In the wake of the 21 July Euro Summit I have been in constant contact with the President of the ECB, the President of the Eurogroup, and most directly concerned Euro area colleagues. I will continue to remain in close consultation with all euro area member states and EU institutions to ensure that the implementation of our decisions remains fully on time and on track," Van Rompuy concluded.

Filipe Garcia, Head of Informacao de Mercados Financieros Consultants in Porto:

"At the European level, only the swift implementation of the decisions of the July 21 summit and taking the path of economic-financial federalism can diminish the pressures on the euro zone. I think an ECB intervention in the debt markets will not be efficient, as, by the way, it never has been in the past.

"G20 can try to help showing financial solidarity. Since it has not been possible to work to mitigate global imbalances, G20 could give to understand that it will mutually ensure responsibilities taken on sovereign debt.

"It's historic times we live in. The problem has ceased being confined to the European periphery. Now we talk about two countries out of G7 (US and Italy) and soon they may start talking about France."

Howard Wheeldon, BGC Partners, London:

"I think (what is needed is) admission that the single currency now is facing its biggest ever test and it has been found significantly wanting.

"Integrity is what is needed. Integrity of the politicians instead of trying to skirt around the problem without any solution and admit that the central issue is that the euro, in its present form, can not survive.

"If you accept the inevitable, then you can try and formulate a solution of how you're going to address all the problems. It may take a year or more, but you can't do anything until you accept that the system you're currently running is no longer able to cope with the strains being placed on it."

Nick Stadtmiller, Dubal-based Emirates NBD:

"So far, the steps that Europe has taken have been reactive and now they have to start taking proactive initiatives ahead of market moves.

"Italy has taken quite a few steps to improve its fiscal house. You need to see strong preemptive moves in terms of European institutions to stand behind Italy.

"Interest rate cuts are rather challenging. In the UK, there is little room to move down. The problem is not one of liquidity but of credit worthiness on the part of the sovereigns.

"You need to have stronger statements from the policy makers. Details must be provided. If you look at the grand bargain they came to in July, it was short on detail and that type of uncertainty frustrates people."

In focus: Trichet
Background: 

Since the euro zone's debt crisis erupted last year, the region's rich governments have aimed to limit it to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, which have so far signed up to bailouts totalling €273 billion - a sum that is small compared to the financial resources of the zone as a whole.

Spain, traditionally seen as the next potential domino in the crisis, has managed to retain its access to market funding through fiscal reforms. But due to the large size of the Spanish and Italian economies, pressure on the euro zone would increase dramatically if those countries were eventually to need financial assistance.

Private analysts have estimated a three-year bailout of Spain, based on its projected gross issuance of medium- and long-term debt in 2011, might cost some €300 billion - excluding any additional money for cleaning up Spain's banks. A three-year rescue of Italy could cost twice that.

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