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IMF: Give Greece, Spain a break

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Published 11 October 2012

The IMF on Thursday (11 October) backed giving debt-burdened Greece and Spain more time to reduce their budget deficits, cautioning that cutting too far, too fast would do more harm than good.

 

But Germany pushed back and said back-tracking on debt-reduction goals would only hurt confidence, a stance that suggested some disagreement between the International Monetary Fund and Europe's largest creditor country.

"The IMF has time and again said that high public debt poses a problem," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble told reporters. "So when there is a certain medium-term goal, it doesn't build confidence when one starts by going in a different direction."

The IMF released new research this week showing that fiscal consolidation has a much sharper negative effect on growth than previously thought. Since the global financial crisis, these so-called fiscal multipliers have been as much as three times larger than they were before 2009, the IMF research shows.

That means aggressive austerity measures may inflict deep economic wounds that make it harder for an economy to get out from under heavy debt burdens.

"It is sometimes better to have a bit more time," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in Tokyo, where global finance ministers are meeting. "That is what we advocated for Portugal; this is what we advocated for Spain; and this is what we are advocating for Greece."

The IMF position should be welcome news in Greece, where the government reported on Thursday that the jobless rate hit a new record. Unemployment rose for a 35th consecutive month to 25.1% in July, more than double the eurozone average and up from a revised 24.8% in June. A record 1.26 million Greeks were without work in July, up 43% from the same month last year.

But the IMF was less willing to be patient with Europe on following through with its efforts to seek a more cohesive fiscal and banking union. It said that process was critically incomplete, and blamed the plodding pace for contributing to economic uncertainty that was hurting global growth.

Emerging markets expressed frustration that the eurozone troubles were spilling into their economies. The IMF still expects emerging markets to grow four times as fast as advanced economies, but it cut its forecast sharply for two of the biggest players, Brazil and India.

"Europe has to get its act together," said Palaniappan Chidambaram, India's finance minister, speaking on behalf of the Group of 24 developing and emerging economies. "What is happening in Europe is having an impact on developing countries."

EU wants to shift focus to Washington

European officials were keen to ensure their region was not the sole topic of discussion in Tokyo, where finance officials from around the globe have gathered for the semiannual meetings of the IMF and World Bank.

Europe wants more attention placed on the difficulties Washington faces addressing its "fiscal cliff" of automatic spending cuts and tax increases that will take effect early next year unless the US Congress acts.

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the United States had a window of opportunity after its 6 November presidential election to negotiate a debt reform framework.

Geithner said the magnitude of fiscal reforms that the United States needed to achieve debt sustainability was between 2% and 3% of gross domestic product, which he pointed out was "a modest challenge relative to what most countries around the world face on the fiscal side."

"Our belief is that we can use the period between the election and the end of the year to negotiate a framework of reforms that can be phased in over time," he said.

Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven industrial nations - the United States, Japan, Canada, Italy, Britain, Germany and France - huddled during the afternoon to discuss their challenges, but did not issue a statement outlining their views.

EurActiv.com with Reuters

COMMENTS

  • I use the term "fictitious capital" to describe what the Big Bankers, public and private, are attempting to inflict on the ordinary 99% people who through their entrepreneur led labour create ALL REAL value, capital included.
    In the middle of the 19th century Karl Marx coined this term to describe the notes and loans that governments and gentry used to finance wars, luxuries, estates and otherwise living beyond their REAL means.
    At that time such paper would accrue during "Boom" times as the economy expanded and would usually max out at around 10-12% of a countries GDP. As long as the good times rolled on it was not a problem, but came a crisis of over production (of all the wrong things) there would be the day of reckoning. Ergo, the bill collectors came and cash not paper promises was the order of the day. This resulted in a variety of ways to settle, some were paid in part or in full but more often bankruptcies and swindles resulted. Then the stage was set for the next cycle - boom bust.
    Today though the situation with 'fictitious' or 'counterfeit capital is vastly different.
    100 years of pumped up growth for growths sake first based on the now discredited ideas of John Maynard Keynes has produced a situation where some 20 times the worlds gross product exists as fictitious capital, a counterfeit collection of deficits, bills, bonds, exchanges, derivatives, swaps and the latest fraud, "quantitive easing". (Le Monde Diplomatique puts it at 50 times)
    Every day we read of new Central and Private bank meetings, "Increasing capital base" is their current fad.
    OFF THE WALL! There is not a farthing of REAL capital in all of this ratbag of lies, swindles and manipulations.
    REAL capital is ONLY accumulated labour dedicated to enhancing future production. Ergo entrepreneur led LABOUR (of the 99%) is the only source that can augment existing capital or create new.
    The banksters, led by the IMF, USA FED, and British "financial services" are well aware of this fact but that will not stop them from attempting to download this fraud onto the REAL product of Labour in the form of "bailouts" of "sovereign" debts, to be serviced by taxes on the REAL producers.
    The 99% will be robbed of (much prepaid) social services and benefits to service "debts". Austerity it is called when those who had NO hand in running up this fraud are required to pay interest that will amount to 40-60% of the future product of their labour. Gone will be pensions, good schools, decent medical care, infrastructure (e.g. utilities that work reliably); even adequate diets will be history.

    "Let them eat cake!" exclaimed La Royale Marie Antoinette.
    Let them eat garbage, implies La Grande Dame Christine LaGarde, of the International Monetary Fascists(IMF)

    So Greece, you are the front line today, Italy and Spain may be next, but do not think that any country, including the relatively well off Germany or the resource rich Canada and Australia will be forever exempt. Ms Merkel, beware!
    The "poor little ones" are but appetisers who will whet the appetites of these financial service vultures and jackals. For certain if they succeed in the beginning the taste of financial carrion will make them hunger for more, and they will finish only when the 99% of humanity is subject as debtors to enslavement by the 1%.
    But his does not have to be! Greece you can repudiate the fraud! Lead the way! DEFAULT is the way to go!
    99% be inclusive! Support Greece today, Italy Spain, …, &c. tomorrow and...; the world in future.
    Hold on to your souls! Hang tough!
    You have a WORLD to WIN!!

    By :
    david tarbuck
    - Posted on :
    12/10/2012
  • Talking about austerity the German Finance Minister, Mr. Schauble, comes to my mind! Why???

    Becuase Mr Schauble and austerity are inextricably interwoven.

    Mr. Wolfgang Scahuble wants to transfer the Social Policy from the European Commissioner for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion to the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs. That is he wants to make Eurozone an entity that will be functioning under the austerity measures. Dear Mr. Schauble this will NEVER NEVER NEVER ΝΕVER happen.

    Peoples of Europe rebel now!!!!!!

    Bear that in mind!

    By :
    Southern Alliance
    - Posted on :
    16/10/2012
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde at a news conference in Tokyo on Thursday. IMF photo
Background: 

The IMF has expressed frustration with Europe's piecemeal response to its debt crisis and warned that a recent respite in borrowing costs for debt-laden countries such as Spain may prove short-lived unless eurozone leaders come up with a comprehensive and credible plan.

In its financial stability report on Wednesday, the IMF said that without swift policy action, including the triggering of the European Central Bank's bond-buying programme, the premium that investors demand to hold Spanish and Italian debt instead of safer German bonds would nearly double.

Standard & Poor's cut its rating on Spain on Wednesday to a level just above junk territory, and Moody's may soon follow.

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