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Merkel coalition rattled by calls for Greek euro exit

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Published 12 September 2011, updated 13 September 2011

Senior politicians in German Chancellor Angela Merkel's centre-right coalition have started talking openly about a Greek default, reflecting mounting concern about the management of the euro zone's debt crisis. On Friday Jürgen Stark – Germany's top official at the European Central Bank – announced his resignation, highlighting deep divisions over the bank's bond purchasing programme.

"To stabilise the euro, there can no longer be any taboos," Philipp Roesler, economy minister and leader of Merkel's junior coalition partner, the Free Democrats (FDP), told newspaper Die Welt.

"That includes, if necessary, an orderly bankruptcy of Greece, if the required instruments are available," he said.

Roesler, who is also vice chancellor, said sanctions should be imposed on states failing to tackle big deficits, including the possible withdrawal of EU voting rights.

FDP General Secretary Christian Lindner went further, telling the Berliner Morgenpost his party had not ruled out the possibility of Greece leaving the euro zone.

Even senior figures in Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) are leaving open the possibility of default.

"The way things are looking, you can no longer rule out a possible Greek restructuring," CDU budget expert Norbert Barthle told Reuters when asked about a default or eurozone exit.

Germany has repeatedly said Greece must meet conditions set by the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund to get the next tranche of aid.

Partly to ramp up the pressure on Greece to comply, German lawmakers have adopted a tougher tone in the past few days.

Der Spiegel magazine reported that German finance ministry officials were preparing for the possibility of a default by Greece and working through scenarios including the reintroduction of the drachma.

Stark resignation

Talk of an orderly Greek default came as Jürgen Stark, Germany's top official at the European Central Bank, announced his resignation on Friday, citing "personal reasons". The move highlighted mounting tensions between Stark and the bank's policy of buying government bonds to combat the euro zone's debt crisis.

"This is a sign of huge problems within the central bank. The Germans clearly have a problem with the direction of the ECB," said Manfred Neumann, emeritus economics professor at Bonn University.

Stark's shock resignation caused stock markets to tumble on Friday, bringing the euro down to $1.37 for the first time since February.

Stark was one of four members of the ECB's policymaking governing council who sources said voted against last month's controversial decision to revive the dormant bond-buying programme and start buying Italian and Spanish debt after the two countries' borrowing costs had ballooned.

Since then the ECB has bought more than €35 billion in bonds, significantly reducing Italian and Spanish spreads over benchmark German Bunds, on top of the €76 billion in Greek, Irish and Portuguese bonds it has bought since May 2010.

The ECB has faced sharp criticism in Germany for buying bonds – a move which many there see as taking the bank into the fiscal arena and threatening its core role of fighting inflation.

Joerg Asmussen, a pragmatic civil servant seen as a Europhile who has been at the heart of financial crisis management, was nominated to replace Stark on the ECB's executive board.

Vote on the EFSF due

Meanwhile, Stark's resignation and the FDP's calls for an orderly default of Greece raised the stakes for Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is battling to convince rebels in her coalition to vote for new powers for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) on 29 September.

Although she will get the law through due to support from opposition parties, if she fails to secure a majority from the ranks of her own coalition parties her authority will be seriously dented and she may even have to call elections.

Some members of her party have raised questions about Greece's continued membership of the euro zone.

"If the Greek government's efforts to make cuts and reform are not successful, we must also ask the question whether we do not need new rules which make possible the exit of a state from the currency union," Der Spiegel quoted senior CDU member Volker Bouffier as saying.

Merkel herself has ruled out an expulsion of Greece, saying it would trigger a domino effect, but rifts have been opening up in her coalition on the subject.

On Saturday, the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) proposed threatening heavily indebted states with having to leave the currency union .

Merkel is in a bind as she tries to push an agenda of greater economic integration as Germans grow more sceptical. A poll this week found 76% of Germans opposed to granting any further aid to heavily indebted Greece.

Former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer fed public concern, saying on Sunday that the euro could even collapse.

"The situation in Europe is really as serious as it has ever been. Until now, I did not think the euro would fail, but if things continue like this then it will collapse," Fischer, foreign minister for the Greens in their coalition with the Social Democrats from 1998-2005, told Bild am Sonntag.

Peer Steinbrueck, tipped as the Social Democrats' challenger to Merkel in 2013 elections, said the EU needed new structures to cope with the new reality, including common eurozone debt issuance – a move Merkel has ruled out.

"That means, of course, that Germany has to pay. But the money is well invested in the future – ours and that of Europe – in peace and affluence."

EurActiv with Reuters

COMMENTS

  • Last week a vision for the future of the European Economic and Monetary Union was presented by The Netherlands. In order to prove for the EU that the money is well invested in the future – ours and that of Europe – (as concluded in this article) it would be interesting to calculate the utility of this vision, given the probabilities of given relevant variables in the vision. Methods how to do this are given in "Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams" by Uffe B. Kjaerulff and Anders L. Madsen and tools needed can be obtained on http://www.hugin.com/

    By :
    Anonymous
    - Posted on :
    12/09/2011
  • Time to let Greece go.. Enough is enough.

    By :
    Anonymous
    - Posted on :
    13/09/2011
  • Using Bayesian Network models like mentioned in the first comment we arrive at the following economic and political utilities. Leaving the Euro by a country like Greece would amount to approx EUR 10,000 per person in Greece during the first year. That cost would then probably amount to EUR 3,500 per person per year over subsequent years. If Germany were to leave, the cost would be around EUR 7,000 for every German adult and child in the first year,and EUR 4,000 per person per year there after. However, the utility of political cost would be higher then the utility economic cost. Fragmentation of the Euro would incur political costs. Europe’s influence internationally would cease as the concept of “Europe” as an integrated polity becomes meaningless.

    By :
    Anonymous
    - Posted on :
    15/09/2011
  • If you carefully analyze the EMU then there are basically only some base paths for countries.

    Path a) A country might exit the EMU because it becomes advantageous to devalue its currency and default its obligations. Alternatively, a sounder government may decide to leave the EMU. These exit costs are however much to high to materialize. Greece might follow this path and exit the Euro when it starts to default.

    Path b) Incentives for higher deficits then other countries will lead to a transfer EMU. Richer states pay to the poorer to cover deficits and the ECB monetizes government debts. This scenario was the scenario the last year(s). The ECB has bought 130 billion Euro of obligations. The resistance for this scenario by richer countries however grows very fast. Also richer countries are not able to continue this scenario anymore. So this path seems to end now, see eg. Jurgen Stark exiting the ECB and the growing resistance in Germany, France, Austria, Finland and Holland for this path.

    Path c) The Stability and Growth Pact will be reformed and enforced. Penalties may consist in a suspension of voting rights and EU subsidies. This leads slowly and painfully to some kind of fiscal integration.

    Given the current developments is that with overwhelming probability Path c) is most likely on the long run with optionally more countries exiting the EMU on default as in Path a)

    By :
    Anonymous
    - Posted on :
    18/09/2011
Background: 

Officials have avoided any talk of budget offenders like Greece being kicked out of the euro zone but the Netherlands put the unwanted question firmly back on the table on 8 September, with proposals to appoint a new "commissioner for budgetary discipline".

The European Commission strongly rejected the idea, saying neither exit or expulsion from the euro area is possible according to the Lisbon Treaty.

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