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OECD more optimistic than Brussels about French growth

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Published 06 September 2013
3 comments
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croissance, FMI, Insee, OCDE, PIB

The European Commission expected a decline of French economic activity for 2013 but the OECD forecasts growth of 0.3%, with the Paris-based think tank saying that "the eurozone in its entirety is no longer in recession”.

It may appear as good news for France but it is modest. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised its growth forecast for the French economy upwards. This optimism is shared by the French National Statistics Office INSEE.

According to the OECD’s intermediary economic assessment, French GDP should rise by 0.3% in 2013, while the previous assessment announced a 0.3% decline over the same period.

“It’s an important reassessment, especially considering the fact that this same organization was very pessimistic in its forecasts since January 2013. I think that the recovery of the second trimester surprised everybody and played an important role on this reassessment”, says Eric Hayer, director of the French Economic Observatory (OFCE).

The OECD’s forecast is the most optimistic of all studies published so far this year on the French economy. The International Monetary Fund announced a 0.2% decline in growth and no recovery before 2014. The European Commission’s prognosis was hardly more encouraging.

But experts and observers in France remain vigilant despite these positive projections. “Many economists think that a return to growth in France is impossible without deep structural reforms”, says Hayer, adding that “we have to put this projection in perspective, given that the recession in 2012 was very strong, there should be a much quicker and much bigger rebound today."

"This slight increase will not reverse the unemployment curve,” he stressed.

Positive projections for the eurozone

The OECD also forecasts improvements in the rest of the eurozone, predicting 0.7% growth in Germany and a 1.5% rise for the UK. The OECD said that “the Eurozone in its entirety is no longer in recession”.

The European Commission's forecasts again proved to be lower, announcing a 0.4% decline of eurozone GDP for 2013.

“It was a lost year for economic recovery”, says Hayer. “We might be out of the heavy recession stage, but growth remains flat, due to the austerity shock the European economies went through. “

EurActiv.fr - translated by Tanja Milevska

COMMENTS

  • I want to say that I am almost a Complete Novice, with regards to the subjects of Economics, Banking, and Finance, but I do have my opinions.

    The Fact that I am a Novice in Economics, Banking, and Finance does not mean that I am necessarily correct any of my opinions on these matters, and it does not necessarily mean that I am wrong on all my opinions on these matters, but what is does mean, is that they are my opinions.

    There are Many People who are thinking on how to restore Economic Growth in the Eurozone Countries.

    I have heard it said that Some are better than Others at Understanding Ambiguous Sayings.

    I was told that Economics can be an Ambiguous Science; if it can be classed as a Science that is.

    This is because we know that if you ask 2 Economists the same Question, then they will give you 4 Opinions.

    I think that the Eurozone should pick a struggling Eurozone Country, and give that Country enough Euros which amounts to approximately 3 % of the GDP of that Eurozone Country.

    We know that the Eurozone is not a Political Union, even though it is a Currency Union.

    We know that the Problems associated with the Single Euro Currency were known when the Eurozone was created, and that is that the Eurozone is not a Political Union.

    It remains to be seen if the Eurozone will become a Political Union, and we know that the European Union Treaty is not Compatible with a Legal Political Union, and Certain Eurozone Countries have Constitutional Obstacles to a Monetary Union.

    America has dozens of States, and these American States are a Political Union, and a Monetary Union, and so it would be easier for America to try this Economic Plan if it is feasible than for the Eurozone to implement this Plan, but I think the Eurozone could do it if they made Secret Money Transfers to the poorer Eurozone Countries, because their Treaties or Domestic Politics do not allow them to make their Monetary Transfers, and I know that Honesty is the Best Policy, but the Eurozone Leaders will decide how to Manage their Economies.

    This Plan could be used in a Eurozone Country, or even Many Eurozone Countries, or even All Eurozone Countries, but we know that it is likelier in America, because America Prints Money, and the Eurozone does not Print Money to Stimulate the Economy.

    The Plan for an Economic Stimulus if for the Eurozone Common Currency to Print 3 % of their GDP at Interest Free or 0 % Interest Rate from their Reserve Bank.

    The Eurozone Federal Bank then uses that Money to buy houses from those who want to sell their houses to the Government at the Market Price, and rent those houses indefinitely at a rate of 25 % of the total income of each household.

    The same applies to those struggling with mortgages, and they rent the houses for as long as the renter or renters who are the original owner or owners want to rent that property at a rate of 25 % of the total income of each household.

    These might only sell under the Guarantee that they could continue to rent Government rental properties, with the Guarantee of a transfer to another Government rental property for as long as they wish if it becomes available, and this arrangement will be for life, otherwise Many People might not want to sell their houses to the Government.

    There might be some houses that need maintenance and repairs, and therefore the Market Value of those houses will be lower, but the rent will be 25 % of the income of the household.

    These types of houses will provide work for those who repair and maintain houses.

    We know that the Government wants to create Employment, it is Employment that generates Tax Revenues, and Lowers Government, on Unemployment Benefits, but this will both Reduce Taxes on Citizens, along with better Government Services.

    I think that the Eurozone should have Euro Bonds, and they should Secretly Print 15 Billion Euros a year to pay off the Interest of their Debts, while Economic Activity pays off the Principal of the Debt, and Funds other Infrastructure, and Housing is Infrastructure.

    Obviously, People will know that houses are sold to the Government, but they might not need to know the full extent if the Eurozone decides to keep that Ambiguous, and that would be entirely up to Eurozone, even though I know that Honesty is the Best Policy, and this is why I encourage Honesty in All Matters.

    The Money that those People who sold their houses to the Government is now available for them to Spend, and some or most of it will be used to Stimulate the Economy, and I believe that this is the Only Way that Economic Stimulus should be used to Stimulate Recovery of the Economy.

    By :
    Journalist
    - Posted on :
    07/09/2013

  • I realized that I should have said that the figures I mentioned are dependent on Accounting Reality, but the Money Printing to pay the Interest, and the Interest Free Loan from the Eurozone Federal Bank should remain the same in my opinion.

    That means that the 3 % of GDP Money Printing to Stimulate the Economy, and the 15 Billion Euros to help pay off Interest Repayments are Approximate figures, or they could be seen as Ambiguous, and they are my opinions.

    I understand that even a little Money Printing is not good to mention before an Election, but it does not matter as much after an Election.

    The Eurozone will have to pay one way or another, and the Eurozone may benefit from Money Printing of approximately 15 Billion Dollars a year to pay the Interest on the Loan, and Money Printing of approximately 3 % of Eurozone GDP for Economic Recovery.

    After that Economic Recovery is Established, then the Eurozone Federal Reserve Bank can reduce the Money Supply, perhaps by raising a Common Tax for approximately a year or two, if that is needed.

    I have to admit that I do not know much concerning the Eurozone, and I do not know if the Eurozone has a Common Tax like a Value Added Tax.

    If the Eurozone did have this type of Common Tax, then the Eurozone could use that Tax to either Fund the massive house buying if they were not going to Print the Money for that, and the Eurozone could Temporarily Increase that Tax to Reduce the Money Supply in the Economy if Inflation goes higher than approximately 5 % a year, although each Country could be asked to raise Taxes to Contribute to the amount that would be agreed in such a situation.

    I think that it is better to be Honest if a Responsible Level of Printing of Euros to Stimulate the Economy is method to facilitate Economic Recovery.

    This is because, this will lower the Value of the Euro and make Exports from the Eurozone more Competitive, and the Lowering Unemployment in the Eurozone, and a little Inflation will make it easier to pay off the Principal.

    My comments on Economics, Banking, and Finance must be Understood by the Fact that I am a Novice on these matters, even though I do read the 4 Different Opinions of 2 Expert on the same Question, and this helps me to remain a Novice, even though I have my opinions on these matters.

    Therefore, this does not mean that I am necessarily correct on even one of my opinions on these matters, and it does not necessarily mean that I am wrong on any of my opinions on these matters, but what is does mean, is that they are my opinions.

    We know that the Government wants to create Employment, it is Employment that generates Tax Revenues, and that Lowers Government Expenditure on Unemployment Benefits, and this will both Reduce Taxes for Citizens, along with Providing More Government Services.

    Obviously, People will know that houses are sold to the Government, but they might not need to know the full extent if the Eurozone decides to keep that Ambiguous, and that would be entirely up to Eurozone, even though I know that Honesty is the Best Policy, and this is why I encourage Honesty in All Matters.

    I was wondering if one or more Eurozone Country could Independently and Secretly Invent the Extra Euros out of thin air to buy Many houses, and just use clever accountancy tricks, or even dishonest undetectable methods unknown to others, and it is just like the Banks do not have all of our Money, but because not everyone wants all their Money at the same time, then the Regulated Banks have no problems, and they Mainly buy their Own Goods and Services regardless of the Price, because the Eurozone Common Currency was not the wisest decision they made, because they realize that they have to care for themselves, because no one will care for them, except themselves.

    At the same time, I was wondering if one or more Eurozone Country can Independently and Publically raise the Extra Euros through Taxation like a Financial Transaction Tax to buy Many houses, and to do this Honestly to help the rest of the Eurozone, and they Mainly buy their Own Goods and Services regardless of the Price, because the Eurozone Common Currency was not the wisest decision they made, because they realize that they have to care for themselves, because no one will care for them, except themselves.

    It is obvious that the Carbon Tax and the Emissions Trading Scheme has nothing to do with the Environment, and these come at a Price, and that Price is for the Ordinary People, including the Middle Class, because Certain People and their Friends have Shares in Solar Panel Companies, and the Emissions Trading Scheme is used to Subsidize Tax Cheats, and to Corruptly Launder Dirty Money.

    I have been doing my own personal research on Climate Change and on the Carbon Tax, and on an Emissions Trading Scheme, and I wrote comments on this Website using the Moniker of Journalist at the News Item Titled: Poland on collision course with Brussels over ‘illegal’ coal plant at http://www.euractiv.com/energy/poland-collision-course-brussels-news-529895 , and there is much Honest Information on this matter at the 50 to 1 Video Project Website at http://topher.com.au/50-to-1-video-project/ .

    Making Energy Deliberately Unnecessarily More Expensive hurts the Economy, which Increases Unemployment that creates Budget Deficits and Debts, and to improve the Living Standards of the Poor, then the Eurozone should Reduce the Costs of Essentials, such as Energy and Housing, which is in Reality Reduces the Cost of Production, along with having No Unnecessary Regulations.

    The Carbon Tax and the Emissions Trading Scheme is for Certain People and for their Friends to Cheat on their Taxes and to Launder Dirty Money.

    The Money that those People who sold their houses to the Government would have, would then be available for them to Spend some or most of it, and this would be used to Stimulate the Economy, and I believe that this is the Only Way to do an Economic Stimulus for the Recovery of the Eurozone Economy.

    By :
    Journalist
    - Posted on :
    08/09/2013

  • There is one sentence that I wrote in my other comment, and it could be Ambiguous, and so I will clarify it.

    I essentially wrote: I was wondering if one Eurozone Country, or more Eurozone Countries who could Independently and Secretly Invent the Extra Euros or some type of Money or some type of Credit out of thin air to buy Many houses, and just use clever accountancy tricks, or even dishonest undetectable methods unknown to others or unprovable to others, and it is just like the Banks which do not have all of our Money, but because not everyone wants all their Money at the same time, then the Regulated Banks have no problems.

    That one Eurozone Country or more Eurozone Countries might Mainly buy their Own Goods and Services from their own Country regardless of the Price of those Goods and Services.

    This is because the Eurozone Common Currency, without a Political Union in place first was not the wisest decision they made, because they realize that they have to care for themselves, because no one will care for them, except they themselves.

    I thought of a possible Scheme on how a Country can Invent Extra Euros, or Extra Money, or Extra Credit out of thin air, Despite belonging to a Common Currency Union, and I did not know of this possible Scheme, but it came to mind a few hours after I wrote my other comment.

    If I have been able to think of it, then this means that Experts with Centuries Worth of Knowledge would have already known of it, and could easily know Other Schemes that we do not know of.

    We know with Computerized Banking Systems, that Money can move quickly from one Bank Account to one or more other Bank Accounts.

    If a Million People in a Eurozone Country have a spare 100,000 Euros that can be transferred around the place, then they can put this in the Government's Bank Account, and instead of earning Interest, they get to Cheat on their Taxes, and because not everyone wants their 100,000 Euros at the same time, then it is not a problem, and that Money amounts to 100 Billion Dollars, and we know that Banks can lend 10 times or more the amount of Money they have in Deposits, and so the Government now has 1 Trillion Euros to buy houses, and those houses are a Source of Rental Income for the Government.

    Perhaps this Deposit of 100,000 Euros is paid for a Profitable Level of Immunity from Paying Taxes, because that Money cannot earn Interest, or be Invested Elsewhere, but Tax Evasion is an Investment to some People.

    Even though these People are shown as paying Taxes, that Money can be Secretly added to their Bank Accounts, when Audits are not being done.

    A Eurozone Country, or a few Eurozone Countries could use this Scheme, which a Committee of Experts would Refine, and the Government can use that Money to buy Houses to make their Eurozone Country more Competitive than Other Eurozone Countries.

    That Eurozone Country would Export to other Countries, but they would might Mainly buy their Own Goods and Services from their own Country regardless of the Price of those Goods and Services, because they realize that they have to care for themselves, because no one will care for them, except they themselves.

    The Cost of Energy and Housing and other Essentials are part of the Cost of Business and the Cost of Government, because Workers, and those on a Social Wage, have to pay for these Basics and that means Higher Wages and Higher Social Wages, and these are a part of the Cost of Business and the Cost of Government.

    The Carbon Tax and the Emissions Trading Scheme is for Certain People and for their Friends to Cheat on their Taxes and to Launder Dirty Money.

    I am not encouraging Corrupt Activity, but most of us have heard of Corrupt Practices in some Financial Systems, and these are my opinions on Employment and the Economy.

    By :
    Journalist
    - Posted on :
    09/09/2013

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