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Slovenia dejected by rating downgrade

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Published 03 August 2012, updated 14 August 2012

Slovenia said on Friday (3 August) it was disappointed by Moody's downgrade of its sovereign bond rating, saying the agency failed to take into account its efforts to enforce fiscal consolidation, including measures to cut the deficit and debt.

Moody's late on Thursday cut Slovenia's government bond rating to Baa2 from A2, just two notches above junk, on worries about the country's banking system and rising vulnerability to shocks.

"We are disappointed that the agency did not take into account the measures the government has passed in the last few months in the area of consolidating public finances," the finance ministry said in a statement.

Slovenia dissociates its problems from those of Spain, Italy or Greece

The statement said the government "deeply regrets Moody's decision because Slovenia's macroeconomic indicators, including deficit and public debt, cannot be compared to Spain, Italy or Greece". "Likewise, the problems in the banking sector are not as serious as in Spain."

The rating agency statement on Thursday said the negative outlook reflected Moody's view that the sovereign's funding challenges and risks from the financial system remain substantial.

"The deteriorating macroeconomic environment amplifies this risk and opens the possibility that external assistance may be required," Moody's added.

Slovenia's budget deficit soared to 6.4% of GDP in 2011 from zero in 2007, as its economy reversed a decade of strong growth, but the centre-right government of Prime Minister Janez Jansa hopes to cut it to 3.6% this year.

Its mostly state-owned banks are likely to end 2012 with a loss for a fourth straight year, after a combined loss of €200 million euros in 2011, largely due to rising bad loans.

Prime Minister Jansa denies Slovenia needs outside help

Last month, the government's macroeconomic institute said local banks' bad loans had reached €6 billion in the first quarter and were likely to rise further.

In its Thursday statement, Moody's said the banking system was likely to face increases in non-performing loans on its books.

Standard & Poor's rates Slovenia A-plus, and Fitch rates the country A. Both those ratings carry negative outlooks.

Jansa's government has strongly denied market rumours that Slovenia could become the sixth eurozone country to ask for outside help because of its troubled banks.

Meanwhile Spain inched closer to seeking a sovereign bailout on Friday as Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy opened the door to a request, although he said he needed first to know the attached conditions as well as the form the rescue would take.

Spain mulls request

At a news conference on Friday, the first he has attended after the weekly cabinet meeting since he took power in December, Rajoy said no decision could be taken until further details are agreed. But he said he was ready to do what is best for the country.

He went further than yesterday, when Rajoy three times declined to say whether he would seek aid and trigger a concerted action of the European Central Bank and the European Union rescue funds to bring down Spain's borrowing costs.

"I will do, as I always do, what I believe to be in the best interest of the Spanish people," Rajoy said on Friday.

"We still don't know what these measures are," he said, with reference to a comment by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi that the bank was examining non-conventional measures to defend the euro.

"What I want to know is what these measures are, what they mean and whether they are appropriate and, in light of the circumstances, we will make a decision, but I have still not taken any decision," he said.

EurActiv.com with Reuters

COMMENTS

  • I sympathise with Slovenia. The EU has been notably reluctant to do something about the rating agencies. Shown below is an extract from a 2010 Rolling Stone magazine which relates to the CDOs and CDS' issued by Goldman Sacks in 2006.

    “Take one $494 million issue in 2006, GSAMP Trust 2006S3. Many of the mortgages belonged to second-mortgage borrowers, and the average equity they had in their homes was 0.71%. Moreover, 58% of the loans included little or no documentation — no names of the borrowers, no addresses of the homes, just zip codes. Yet both of the major ratings agencies, Moody's and Standard & Poor's, rated 93% of the issue as investment grade (i.e. AAA). Moody's projected that less than 10% of the loans would default. In reality, 18% of the mortgages were in default within 18 months”

    This raises the question about Moody’s (and the others) are they, incompetent lying idiots, corrupt lying idiots (one supposes that they were being paid by Goldman Sacks for the rating) or just idiots (henceforth the rating agencies will be referred to as ILCI – incompetent, lying, corrupt idiots). In turn this raises a couple of other questions. What credibility, given the above do the ILCI have? (I’d suggest none). Why have, for example, Euro competition authorities not undertaken at least dawn raids on the ILCI to at least determine collusion in the way they rate countries - the current "system" seems to indicate a "buggins turn next" - which suggests it will be S&P having a pop at another EU MS in a week or two's time.

    Some answers to the above could be that a number of ex-Goldman Sacks people are in positions of power in Europe and it is not in their interests to up-set old apple carts. I am thinking of the likes of super-Mario and the current head of the ECB.

    A suggestion to Slovenia. Do some dawn raids of your own – you will always find something. Lock up some bankers and their hangers on (e.g. employees of the ILCI) – reasons for chucking them in jail even if only for a month or two should not be too hard to find, Get some FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) going amongst the masters of the universe. Lets see these vermin suffer a bit.

    By :
    Mike Parr
    - Posted on :
    06/08/2012

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