EurActiv Logo
EU news & policy debates
- across languages -
Click here for EU news »
EurActiv.com Network

BROWSE ALL SECTIONS

Think-tank rings 'alarm bell' for France's economic health

Published 16 November 2011
Comments3
Printer-friendly versionSend by email

Alarm bells should be ringing for France because of its economic indicators, says a think-tank study released yesterday (15 November) in the presence of Council President Herman Van Rompuy. 

Among the six eurozone countries with an AAA rating, France achieves by far the lowest ranking in the overall health check, the Lisbon Council says in its 2011 Euro Plus Monitor report. "The results are too mediocre for a country that wants to safeguard its place in the top league," the think-tank's study says.

In the 72-page Overall Health Check Indicator, France ranks 13 among the 17 eurozone countries, ahead of Italy (14) but behind Spain (12). Portugal (15), Cyprus (16) and Greece (17) are at the bottom of the list.

In comparison, France’s "total score" in the overall health indicator, an aggregate of data for growth, competitiveness, fiscal sustainability and resilience, is 4.5 - very close to Italy (4.4). The worse performer is Greece (3.0).

In contrast, the country ranking first on the health check indicator is the newest eurozone member, Estonia, scoring 7.4, followed by Luxembourg (7.3) and Germany (6.8).

The report, produced by Germany's Berenberg Bank and the Brussels-based Lisbon Council, was presented in Brussels in front of a large audience and aimed at enriching the public debate about ways to improve economic performance and strengthen the resilience against financial crises.

The report's authors highlight the real concern that France is marred by the low level of progress in adjusting to the financial crisis. The study looks at the external adjustment, as well as to the fiscal adjustment and the change in real units labour cost.

According to the adjustment criterion, France ranks 15th in the eurozone, followed only by Germany, which is characterised as "a near-perfect reform success story" and therefore needs no adjustment, and Austria, which "did not adjust much" because it didn't need to.

"But for a country with significant health problems such as France, the lack of adjustment is a concern," the report states.

Cyprus also identified as a 'potential problem'

"While it enjoys a slightly better economic starting situation than Greece, it has not gone through any of the potentially growth-enhancing adjustments that Greece has. However, with 800,000 people and annual GDP of €17 billion, it weighs little on Europe’s overall economic performance," the reports says of Cyprus.

Van Rompuy, in speech delivered at the release, focussed on the ongoing effort to transform the eurozone into a real economic union.

Comparing the actual growth with a "crises-free" growth, the EU has lost about €2 trillion between 2007 and 2010, Van Rompuy said. He added that this figure is equivalent to the GDP of France, or to 11% Europe's cumulative debt.

"We must be aware that public anxiety in Europe is mounting about the immediate economic and financial situation," Van Rompuy said.

"Slowing growth prospects affect bond markets; volatile bond markets affect public finances. Everything is in everything. All is in all. That is why we must adopt a comprehensive approach and reverse the vicious circle," he said, promising to read the 2011 Euro Plus Monitor report.

Democratic deficit?

Asked about Italy, Van Rompuy said that Mario Monti, Italy's designated prime minister, had been one of the members of his informal group of advisors. The list of informal advisors to Van Rompuy is not publicly known, but Van Rompuy said former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari and former Commission Vice President Étienne Davignon were part of it.

Asked by EurActiv to comment on the criticism that eurozone reforms are mainly decided by a small group, referred to as ‘politburo’ - including the French president, the German chancellor, the heads of the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the Commission president and himself - Van Rompuy said that his main priority was to safeguard the financial stability of the eurozone and to combat the sovereign debt crisis.

"It's not that France and Germany are big countries, both of them forming half of the GDP of the eurozone. But in some way, they are representing two cultures. And having an agreement between the two of them is more than having an agreement between two countries," he said.

But he added that his own task was to get an agreement between the 17 members of the eurozone and the 10 other EU members, which he said was not an easy task either.

"Each prime minister is duly elected in his country, he is responsible before his electorate, and when he agrees and all agree, we have a democratic outcome," he said.

Positions: 

Speaking in Bordeaux yesterday (15 November) French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the country needed to rethink its welfare systems, one of the world's most generous.

In particular, he pointed out that billions of euros had been lost because of fraud.

"We must have no tolerance for cheaters and fraudsters […] Cheating - and I mean stealing from the social security system - is stealing from each and every one of us, and each and every one of you," Sarkozy said, as quoted by Reuters.

In an interview with Les Echos, French Minister of the Economy François Baroin said France would not have a new austerity package as "we have in the budget provided for the necessary room for manoeuvre to reach our deficit target in 2012 in case of a pronounced slowdown of the economy, with €6 billion of credits in reserve."

He added that France's support for further European integration would probably require treaty change. "If the question is 'Are we going towards more federalism?' then the answer is 'yes' and the Gaullist that I am is in no way embarrassed by the expression. … We must move towards more convergence, with a likely modification of the treaties," he said.

Georgi Gotev

COMMENTS

  • The French are a ridiculous bunch, roll on the sixth republic!

    Ha!

    By :
    Betty
    - Posted on :
    16/11/2011
  • Good, I hope they all fail, it was a stinking ship from the start. unelected, faceless fascist dictators. I hope the EU crumbles very soon...here's hoping and praying. The British Government must NEVER be forgiven for selling our country down the river.

    By :
    Anonymous
    - Posted on :
    16/11/2011
  • The failures of Capitalism ahy Sarkozy?!

    By :
    Betty
    - Posted on :
    17/11/2011
Background: 

France will elect a new president in May 2012. Analysts say voters anticipate a loss of the country's AAA credit rating.

On 10 November Standard & Poor’s, one of the three leading global credit rating agencies, issued an email that mistakenly announced the downgrade of France’s AAA rating.

The mistake was promptly corrected and the company quickly issued a press release confirming France's rating with a stable outlook.

However, French Prime Minister François Fillon announced on 14 November austerity measures that would save €100 billion and eliminate France's budget deficit by 2016, including €500 million in additional budget cuts for next year.

Fillon said bankruptcy was "no longer an abstract word" for France and that the country's financial, economic and social sovereignty required "prolonged collective efforts and even some sacrifices."

The prime minister added that his government would accelerate pension reforms, and raise the retirement age from 60 to 62 a year earlier than planned, as well as raise sales and corporate taxes.

More on this topic

More in this section

Advertising

Sponsors

Advertising

Advertising