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Socialists fight EU calls to lift anti-crisis measures

Published 18 March 2010
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The European left has claimed that EU plans to withdraw economic stimulus measures adopted at the height of the financial crisis are premature and could lead to leaps in unemployment. In fact, German regional elections might hold the key, EurActiv has learned.

Centre-left MEPs told EurActiv that EU member states have lost the run of themselves in calling for anti-crisis stimulus measures to be withdrawn by the end of 2010.

EU finance ministers, meeting in Brussels earlier this week, emphasised the importance of combining cooperation on financial market regulation with "principles to underpin the coordinated withdrawal of short-term measures in labour and product markets".

The ministers then appeared to set a deadline of December 2010 for these steps, cautioning that some EU countries intend to extend their temporary measures beyond 2010.

"The Council calls for member states to withdraw these measures as soon as possible," a statement said.

UK Socialist MEP Stephen Hughes told EurActiv that he believes such steps could lead to a drastic leap in unemployment. The problem, as Hughes sees it, is that EU leaders are "obsessed" with drafting policies for Europe's financial architecture, and are ignoring the reality of what will happen if they accelerate exit strategies.

This drive for deficit reduction and fiscal consolidation, says Hughes, is distracting finance ministers from the fact that short-term measures such as those in Germany have shielded many workers from unemployment.

Take them away, and EU unemployment levels, expected to rise from their current 23 million to 25 million by the year's end, could be even higher, he argued. A better balance between timing exit strategies and attacking EU deficits must be found, he concluded.

Merkel keeping quiet until May election

Privately, many socialist politicians believe the driving force behind this development is German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who, they claim, wants to speed up the wind-down of costly German anti-crisis measures such as the 'short working week scheme' in order to tackle her country's growing deficit.

However, experts contacted by EurActiv dismissed such claims as speculation. German economist Jakob Von Weizsäcker of the influential Brussels economic think-tank Bruegel told EurActiv that Merkel is being deliberately coy about her intentions until key regional elections in May.

The North Rhine-Westphalia poll could prove crucial for Germany's centre-right federal coalition government, which currently also rules this key region. Should the coalition lose in Rhine-Westphalia, it would also lose its majority in Germany's second house, the Bundesrat.

With a cost-saving budget of severe austerity programmes now imminent, Merkel must tread a fine line between achieving her fiscal ambitions and not angering German public opinion, particularly in this industrial powerhouse region, he argued.

"There is a large degree of ambiguity about what precise measures will be taken until the May elections are over," he concluded.

Next steps: 
  • 9 May 2010: Regional elections in North Rhine-Westphalia.
Background: 

To tackle the unprecedented economic storm, governments across the world have been spending trillions of dollars on economic stimulus packages to combat the recession, prompting a debate about how eventually to unwind this support. 

Removing the stimulus measures too soon could see economies slump again, while leaving them in place too long could risk stoking inflationary pressures. This is why the need for coordinated 'exit strategies' has featured high on the agenda of EU leaders and finance ministers since late 2009.

The European Commission indicated that if forecasts showed the recovery was strengthening and self-sustaining, deficit cuts in all EU countries should start in 2011 at the latest (EurActiv 04/11/09).

At a meeting in late 2009, the EU's finance ministers agreed on a plan for a coordinated exit strategy from expansionary stimulus packages but did not agree a date for its implementation (EurActiv 02/10/09)

According to the EU's 2020 strategy for economic growth, "for most countries, the onset of fiscal consolidation should normally occur in 2011".

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