Dr. Nathaniel Copsey is also co-director of the Wider Europe Programme, a collaborative, policy-oriented network of practitioners and academics with an interest in European Neighbourhood Policy.
He was speaking to EurActiv Slovakia's Radovan Geist.
Exit polls in Ukraine's presidential election show a lead for Viktor Yanukovich, who is usually described as the 'pro-Russian' candidate. What would be the impact of his victory on the future geopolitical course of Ukraine?
It is true that Yanukovich is popularly described as “pro-Russian”. However, there is no “pro-Russian” candidate in these elections, because there is no real pro-Russian politician in Ukraine. No Ukrainian politician wishes to be in any way under the thumb of Moscow, nobody really wants deeper integration with Russia. What they are interested in is a good working relationship with Russia, for several reasons – from close personal relationships between Ukrainians and Russians, to very pragmatic reasons like the supply of energy. It is misleading to say there is any “pro-Russian candidate,” therefore the victory of Yanukovich cannot in any way damage the Ukrainian EU membership prospects.
When it comes to NATO, both candidates are anti-NATO. So in fact the moment for Ukraine joining the Alliance has passed. The only guy who was consistently pro-NATO was Yushchenko.
So, does the result have any bearing on the future geopolitical leaning of Ukraine?
I don’t think it does, despite the fact that Yulia Tymoshenko is seen as somebody closer to the EU. Her party is affiliated to the EPP [European People's Party], so she is endorsed by that fact, she got some support from the European Parliament, but notwithstanding that I don’t think that Yanukovich's presidency is bad news for the EU. If anything, Yanukovich might be even more beneficial for Ukrainian EU prospects, because he may have less authoritarian tendencies than Yulia Tymoshenko. Moreover, Yanukovich will have to work in the initial period with Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who will have a decisive influence over Ukrainian EU policies.
But surely he will try to replace her with his allies.
I don’t think he can, because his Party of the Regions has no majority and there is no prospect of a coalition, unless he is able to get some of her current allies.
Yulia Tymoshenko does not look like she wants to accept defeat. Don't you think she might try to force the repetition of the second round?
Actually, she did much better than expected. Even if the final results are not known yet, the difference is only 3-4%. It was always obvious that with results as close as that, she was going to protest. However, it is not clear what she wants to achieve. There is no way that the second round is going to be repeated like last time, and she will likely not receive anything in the courts either. If anything, she was the candidate who had, so to say, the “administrative capacity” to influence the results.
Five years ago, the so-called Orange Revolution triggered much enthusiasm for the European future of Ukraine. What is the situation now? Do ordinary people still believe that they have a realistic chance of becoming EU members?
I think that from the side of the EU it’s quite obvious that Ukraine is not really welcome as a member. Of course, if you ask voters in Ukraine whether they want to be members of the EU, they’d say yes. It is important to bear in mind that Yanukovich is also committed to European integration and I would say that Tymoshenko does not even know what European integration is. She has not done a lot in her office as prime minister to increase the pace of EU integration.
The key factor in this election is that neither of the candidates has won more than half of the vote, because the ultimate winner is apathy. Most people were actually against all candidates, or just did not bother to vote at all.
The EU has stated that it will cooperate with whoever wins the elections. This time it has clearly decided not to side with any of the candidates. Do you think that the reasons for this lie with a kind of disappointment with what was achieved by the leaders of the Orange Revolution?
Even last time the EU did not explicitly back any of the candidates. However what it did was make clear that they favoured Yushchenko over the others. This time there was no 'ideal' candidate.
The answer on whether the slow progress of Ukraine towards the EU integration was also caused by the fact that the EU has sent such mixed messages over the last few years is: could the EU have done anything differently?
To some extent, the EU could have provided more support in some areas. It didn’t do that, also because of large differences among EU members over where relations with Ukraine should be heading. But neither side is entirely guilty – neither the EU, nor Ukrainians.
But we could have been more generous towards the Ukrainian people, we could have provided more scholarships for Ukrainians to come and study in the West, we could have provided more favourable conditions for Ukrainians to travel to the EU, we could have provided more visas, but we didn’t do any of that.
This time Russia also refrained from taking a stance in the election race. Why? Is it because both candidates were fairly moderate in terms of future relations with their Eastern neighbour, or is it because Moscow has learnt the lessons of previous 'coloured' revolutions and learned how to manage its neighbourhood in a less conflict-prone way?
If you look at the individuals that the Russian government really doesn’t like, number one is Saakashvilli in Georgia and number two is Yushchenko in Ukraine. So Ukraine will to a certain extent benefit from better relations with Russia in the next few years, because both Yanukovich and Tymoshenko are people with who Moscow could cooperate with much better. The only question which could create tensions is the issue of the Russian language becoming the second official language, but I don't think it will. It had come up during the elections, but will recede back for the next few years.
Second, it is true that the Russians have learned that their influence is greatest when it’s more subtle.
Do you think that the EU's new policy towards its Eastern neighbours has the capacity to change anything substantial in Ukraine, either economically or politically?
The Eastern Partnership clearly has a huge amount of potential. The Association Agreement which is supposed to be signed will significantly enhance the nature of the relationship between the EU and Ukraine, not least because it will be governed by the Association Council, which has the power to make decisions that are legally binding both for Ukraine and the EU.
The longer term ends, one of the more interesting is the integration into the Single Market, because that could be very beneficial for Ukraine.
The Ukrainians have a lot on the table if they want to be serious and do as much as possible to integrate more with the European Union. We will see how successful the next Ukrainian government will be. The election of Viktor Yanukovich is not a disaster for the European integration of the country, far from it.
