Towards a new ‘frozen conflict’ in Europe?

  

The conflict between Russia and Georgia in the summer of 2008 left South Ossetia and Abkhazia in limbo. Today, it is not unlikely that Crimea will be the next spot on Europe's map, deserving this label, writes Peter Van Elsuwege.

Peter Van Elsuwege is professor of EU law at Ghent University.

Many parallels can be drawn between the crisis in the Crimea and the conflict between Russia and Georgia in the summer of 2008. On both occasions, dissatisfaction with western policy decisions raised frustrations in Moscow. In 2008, the secession of Kosovo from Russia’s traditional ally Serbia, as well as the conclusions of the NATO Bucharest Summit welcoming the Euro-Atlantic membership aspirations of Georgia and Ukraine, provided the background for growing tensions between Russia and its partners in the West. Nowadays, the prospect of deep economic integration between Ukraine and the EU, and its consequences for the Russian-driven Eurasian integration project, resulted in significant political, economic and even military pressure. Just as in 2008, the territorial integrity of a post-Soviet republic is at stake. 

Nevertheless, there are also important differences. The 2008 Russian military intervention in South Ossetia and Abkhazia was a reaction to activities of the Georgian army desperately looking to restore order in the breakaway regions. Today, Russia’s interference in the Crimea is much more difficult to justify. There was only the unfortunate decision of the Ukrainian parliament to withdraw the recognition of Russian as a regional language (a revision which did not enter into force due to the veto of interim-President Turchnov) and a general fear that the newly established government will not respect the rights of the Russian population in Ukraine. However, there is no evidence at all that the evolutions in Kiev create a direct humanitarian threat to those people. As a result, there is no legal ground to deploy Russian forces, which explains why President Putin prefers to talk about the presence of ‘local self-defence units’ and consistently denies any Russian responsibility for the takeover of all strategic places in the area.

EU reaction

After the 2008 crisis in Georgia, the EU decided to suspend the negotiations of a new bilateral framework agreement with Russia. A few months later, the European Commission concluded that such a suspension was not in the Union’s self-interest and the negotiations resumed before the end of the year. In a reaction to the recent events in the Crimea, the negotiations on the same new agreement are frozen again. Moreover, the visa liberalisation process and the EU’s participation to the upcoming G8 meeting in Sochi are stalled. In addition to those relatively easy sanctions, more severe measures such as visa bans, the freezing of bank accounts, and even economic restrictions are in the pipeline if a further escalation of the conflict should materialise. In other words, there are signals that a return to the order of the day will not be as evident as after the Georgian-Russian war of 2008.

Next steps

Finally, the question arises what will happen next. The Parliament of the Crimea already voted for annexation with Russia, and it appears that the forthcoming referendum of 16 March 2014 will point in the same direction. Yet, a transfer of the Crimea to the Russian Federation is not evident. It would constitute an obvious infringement of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances for Ukraine, and the 1997 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Respect for each other’s territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders are essential elements of the agreements.

Accepting an infringement of those principles would upset the basic principles of the entire post-Cold War legal order. Moreover, an annexation of the Crimea would not be in Russia’s interest.

For Moscow, it seems much more interesting to keep de facto control in the Crimea without a formal integration in the Russian Federation. This is currently the situation in the Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well as in the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria. In this context, it is noteworthy that in the latter region a referendum took place in September 2006.

Voters had the choice between integration with Moldova or, alternatively, independence with a view to future integration into the Russian Federation. An overwhelming majority (98 %) voted in favour of the second option. Despite numerous attempts to find a settlement for the Transnistria issue, there seems to be no solution to this ‘frozen conflict’. It does not seem illusory that the Crimea will be the next spot on the map of Europe deserving this label.

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Dr. Peter Calabria's picture

It is difficult to see international political problems objectively. To make a parallel, it is difficult to see the simplicity of our solar system from inside it. The view from Earth shows the planets in complex zigzag retrograde orbits that made little sense for millennia other than as the work of various gods. Only by stepping outside the solar system and viewing it orthogonally from afar does the orderliness and simplicity of its behavior become apparent.

East versus West conflicts have the same problem. Viewed from both competing bases, the conclusions conflict and present no orderly sense of what is going on.

The realpolitik of international competition is clear from an objective reading of history prior to the advent, quite recently in historical terms, of capitalism as the center of power of nations and empires rather than patent monarchical militarism. The morality of dominance is vastly diluted by local propaganda, the end goals of both systems of social control being the privilege that springs from such control.

Hence in this battle between Eastern autocracy and Western capitalism, what really matters is not what is "right" to do, for both sides always retain the private and compelling argument that what is right for them is what is good for their side. Rather it is: Who has the tangible power to do what.

In this case, Russia will gain, whatever the plethora of verbiage about who is morally correct. The broader world, of course, will lose given that the situation is the beginning of the next major (global) conflict in human history, this one significantly dangerous in the possibility of nuclear annihilation as its outcome being not insignificant.

There is no solution to this problem attainable by moralizing. All that can be done is using whatever insightfulness remains in this every increasingly mad world to direct us to A WORLD WITH NO WEAPONS, a general sense of which including the pressing need for it no matter how fatally idealistic it sounds spelled out in mathematical detail on Matrix-Evolutions.com.

Awakenmedia's picture

13) Classical Catalan

BSP Celebrated Manyawar Kandgram Ji's Birth Anniversary at FREEDOM PARK, Bangalore at 11 AM on 15-3-2014

Thousands of salutes were made by thousands of people to great leader...Dada Saheb Honourable Kanshram ji for his towering and tireless efforts, which has changed the SOCIO-_POLITICAL equations in direction of this country, in the present 21st century ... rich tributes to this great statesman on his birth anniversary were paid by President Marasandra Muniappa, Mr. Mohanraj, Dr.Jayaprakash, Koramangala Muniappa and others.

"I have already declared at the Lucknow rally that Mayawati is my chosen political heir."- Kanshiram Ji

"I can face two battalions but not two scribes" said Napoleon. Other than our country scribes all over the world are dare devils. Here too it is slowly happening. The scribes gave too much importance to Baniya AAP. But the same Baniya is attacking the scribes. It is nothing but a natak baaz (Drama). These people believe in "Badhnaam me bi Naam Hothaa hai' i.e., There is name in bad name. Their object is just to prevent Ms Mayawati to become PM as both Congress and Stealth Cult RSS's Bahuth Jiyadha Paapi (BJP) are sure to lose in the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections. The most corrupt scribes are aware of the true fact that after the brahmin and the Backward PMs who failed miserably with their in-efficient governance , it is the turn of Ms Mayawati who shared the wealth of UP government equally among all sections of the society (Sarva Samaj) including SC/ST/OBC/Minorities, poor brahmins, baniyas, and kshatriyas for their welfare happiness and peace and also for them to ultimately attain Eternal Bliss as their Final Goal. Ms Mayawati the Awakened One is aware of the truth that Dukkha (Misery and Suffering) Exist and the fact that Dukkha Nirodha (End of Misery & Suffering) also exists and for this the MASTER KEY is a MUST so that it will unlock all the doors of development for progress. Now slowly some of the scribes too have started realising this truth.

PEOPLE ARE JUST FED UP WITH CONGRESS, OTHER REGIONAL PARTIES (AAP) AND BJP!
HENCE ACQUIRE THE MASTER KEY!
FOR THE ELEPHANT OF BSP!

There wont be any choice between anyone and Mayawati for Prime Minister, VOTERS would be in her favour.

Voters are Awake with Awareness of Baniya Media Kejri(Crazy) revol(ver)'s Natak Baaz (Drama) of Asura Assisted Paapis(AAP) including Bahuth Jiyadha Paapis (BJP)and

vote for Ms. Mayawati's BSP's ELEPHANT will be the LARGEST with 100% that will spark these debates and steer public opinion. That's what we need it.Different regional political parties' Backward Community leaders started campaigning against both Congress and Stealth Cult RSS's
(Bahuth Jiyadha Paapis) BJP. They say that both the parties must be defeated. Now all they have to do is to become broad minded like the people of US who elected Obama as President for the second time and similarly to support Ms Mayawati to become Prime Minister and become true partners to distribute the wealth of the country equally among all sections of the society 'Sarva Samaj' including SC/ST/OBC/Minorities, poor brahmins, baniyas and kshatrias for heir welfare, happiness and peace as this movement is equal to the movement of Nelson Mandela.

But for the Election Commission's deliberate failure of its responsibility to include all eligible citizens as voters & strategically removed names from the voters list all these years by going door to door in favour of Stealth Cult RSS's Bahuth Jiyadha Paapis (BJP). Videos showing CEC in the Communal Hindutva attire proves this.

After meeting a group of fund managers and stock brokers in Mumbai on Wednesday, Anil Singhvi, investment banker and former managing director of Ambuja Cements, attended by close to 50 fund managers and brokers, was held at Bajaj Bhavan in Nairman Point. Stockbroker Ramdeo Agrawal have already realised that there wont be any choice between anyone and Mayawati for Prime Minister, for VOTERS would be in her favour.

In the course of interaction with financial market representatives, he repeatedly said the 2014 general elections would result in a fractured mandate.

The Forthcoming Elections of 2014 are very crucial to the survival of our Democracy, as in these elections, the major opposition party, the Stealth Cult RSS's Bahuth Jiyadha Paapi (BJP) has already declared its Prime Ministerial candidate. There is a big noise about declaring the Prime Ministerial candidate by BJP. This is very much opposed to our system of democracy, where first the Members of parliament are elected who in turn elect the Prime Minister. BJP wants to take the matters in the direction of Presidential system of elections, which has different sets of problems and is unsuitable for a country with diversity like ours.

Stealth Cult RSS's Bahuth Jiyadha Paapi (BJP) being projected a big section of media, social media and section of social classes; middle classes in particular are creating an atmosphere as if BJP is the solution to our problems. Inner Circle Brahmin Jana People (BJP) are trained swayam sevaks of Stealth Cult RSS. Other than brahmins some bakharas (Scape Goats) are included in the outer level as Pracharaks and as Organizing Secretaries in BJP. After using them the Stealth Cult RSS poojari will lead them to Bali Peet and slaughter like Yediyurappa and other Backwards such as Modi etc.,etc., was deputed to become the Chief Minister of Gujarat. When he took over as the Chief Minister, the prospects of BJP were declining in Gujarat. It is precisely at this time the Godhra incident occurred and, making Godhra train burning as a pretext massive communal violence was unleashed, in which the state led by Modi was complicit, to say the least. This has polarized the Gujarat society and due to this polarization, Modi has been winning Gujarat Assembly.
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After the carnage, the victims were not given the necessary rehabilitation and the struggle for getting them justice is still on and is very difficult. The minorities have been relegated to second class citizenship, and the condition of SC/STs, women and adivasis is abysmal. At the same time a massive propaganda, with the help of Caste bias, communal medias and their ad agencies and supported by different wings of Stealth Cult Sangh Parivar has been launched that there is something like’ the so called Gujarat Model’ of development. This has by now become part of ‘social common sense’. This propaganda has caught on, the reality is totally different. Not only that, Uttar Pradesh under the leadership of Ms mayawati had much better progress. The social indices of Gujarat, in a way, are not very good. The nutrition of children, the blood levels (Hemoglobin) of pregnant women, the rate of employment generation all are very bad in Gujarat.

The state Government spent crores of rupees in court cases to avoid the appointment of Lok Ayukta, which is a step towards eradication of corruption. As far as Modi being ‘strong’ is concerned, one should note that Modi is a autocrat, who does not go by democratic model of functioning, he has appropriated all the powers to himself in Gujarat Government, there is no room for dissent in the Government policies. Dissent and debate are the way, the democracy functions. Lot is being stated that Modi will solve all the problems related to security in the society. The point is in Gujarat the sex ratio is has slightly declined (2001 920, 2011- 918) the atrocities on Scheduled Castes and adivasis have increased. The cases of sexual assault on women are aplenty.

Scape Goat Modi ignorant of the fact that 'Goats are Sacrificed and not the Lions' is the executioner of the agenda of Stealth Cult RSS. Ms Mayawati had rightly said that there was internal rift between Modi, Advani and Rajnath Singh. Now one of the owners of Stealth Cult RSS's Bahuth Jiyadha Paapi (BJP) Joshi, Sushma Suraj, Lalji Tandon and also the RSS itself have joined the fight. It has already side tracked a Backward Caste man as curry leaves which is thrown out after extracting its juice for the curry. By now they have realised that the VOTERS like in Karnataka can never be fooled by all their gimmicks. RSS wants to control all the aspects of social and political life by floating different organizations like Rashtra Sevika Samiti, ABVP, BJP, VHP, Bajrang Dal and Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram to name the few including the Supreme Court, Election Commission. In addition it has floated organizations to influence education, media and the state machinery through its infiltration in police, bureaucracy and army with more than 90% brahmins. It does not believe in democracy, does not hold to Nationalism. Its goal is to bring in Stealth Cult Hindutva Rashtra by controlling all the aspects of country’s life according to elite brahmin norms. While Nationalism is based on the values of Liberty, Equality and Fraternity, The Nationalism of RSS is based on the values which give primacy to superiority of males and brahmins. RSS is an exclusively male organization and its subordinate Rashtra Sevika Samiti, shows the real place of women in the scheme of things of RSS. In the word Rashtra Sevika Samiti, the women’s wing of RSS, the word Swayam (Self) is missing. According to all fundamentalist and fascist organizations the place of women is secondary. Many an organizations, which are subordinate to RSS, dictate the dress code and code of conduct for girls and women, to remain controlled by men. It has Smajik Samrasta Manch, which talks that there should be harmony between different castes, not caste annihilation, not caste eradication. For adivasis, it has formed Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram. It refuses to call them Adivasis and regards them as a part of Hindutva Cult society, so is trying to forcibly bring them to Hindutva Cult fold by organizing Ghar Vapasi Programs, the programs which forcible convert Adivasis to Hindutva Cult. Scheduled Caste Valmiki, in order to please the ruler wrote the epic Ramayana. Similarly Schedule Tribe wrote the epic Mahabaratha. Their heroes and heroines became gods. Though the temples of these gods were built by the hard labourers, after the temples came into beings the brahmins never allowed the owners of the epics inside the temples. Now the gullible people are taken for a ride by RSSising the gods for their vote bank.

Bahuth Jiyadha Paapi (BJP)’s main functionaries are Stealth Cult RSS trained Swayamsevaks, pracharaks. Most of its Organizational Secretaries are directly deputed by RSS. At crucial times RSS directly intervenes like appointing BJP Presidents or its Prime Ministerial candidates. BJP is guided by the long term agenda of Hindutva Cult nation. It does dilute its agenda when in coalition. It has a short term agenda which may not directly talk of Hindutva Cult nation. Its short term agenda was visible when it formed NDA and ruled the country for six years from 1998 to 2004. Just to take a chance it tried to change the Indian Constitution, as RSS believes that Indian Constitution is based on Buddhist values and it should be changed and made to be based on Hindutva Cult . The hint is Manu smirti, which they believe that they uphold the hierarchy of caste ( brahmin as 1st rate athmas (soul) baniyas, kshatriayas , shudhras as 2nd, 3rd, 4th rate athmas and their belief that the untouchables (SC/ST)s have no soul and thaey coud do whaterever harm they could do to them. But the Buddha never believed in any soul. He said alla re equal) and gender. This is the same book which was burned by Dr. B.R. Ambedkar. It is another matter that BJP failed in its attempt to change the Constitution. Microscopic % of the population can never dream of changing the Constitution which caters to all society citizens of the Country.

Last three parliamentary elections there is a gradual decline in the percentage of votes polled by BJP. Now the strategy is to project BC though the samaj (Society do not follow if one leaves his samaj. He has to go alone), JD (U) withdrew from NDA. Within BJP also there is a section of leadership which is uncomfortable due to BC being so projected, as they know such BCs have dictatorial tendencies and that he will marginalize other leaders,as Yediyurappa did in Karnataka and gradually a type of dictatorship guided and supported by Staeth Cult RSS will come to the fore. BJP so far has diluted its Hindutva agenda when it came to power in alliance with other parties due to the compulsions of coalition. If it gets simple majority, the brakes and inhibitions of a coalition will be done away and naked Hindutva agenda will be unfolded. Why BJP needs to be halted is clear, BJP is a party with a difference as it a child of Stealth Cult RSS.

Bakhara Modi has employed different mechanisms to dominate social media and sections of middle class are singing peens for him as they think this will give stability etc. Many a myths are being created about BJP being better than other parties, especially BSP as the brahmins think that they are most efficient, effective, meritorious people on the earth though the Constitution was written by an untouchable Dr.B.R.Ambedkar and the Epics Ramayana and Mahabaratha were written by SC/STs. As such one is sure that Congress is no secular angel, it has faltered times and over again in proper implementation of secular policies.

Narendra Modi is trying to dominate the media, print social and TV through his carefully constructed propaganda machinery. Modi has openly used the words like puppies dying under the car wheel, while referring to the victims of Gujarat carnage of 2002. He has also asserted that he is a ‘Hindutva Cult nationalist’. While most of the older allies of NDA, are deserting NDA, Stealth Cult RSS-Bahuth Jiyadha Paapi BJP hope that he will be able to win the 2014 elections inspite of his image of a corrupt, inefficient administrator who has taken Gujarat to the lowest of development. In social media and other platforms the polarized section of Hindutva Cult and the section of middle class are very appreciative of Modi.

 All this is mostly a pipe dream. One knows that Modi is totally disliked by the victims of communal violence, most sections of religious minorities Those who have gone deeper to the issue of Gujarat development model point out that it is more of a propaganda than reality. ‘Modi phenomenon’ has arisen only to stop BSP acquiring the MASTER KEY.

Therefore, the Sarva Samaj i.e.,All Societies including SC/ST/OBC/Minorities and poor brahmins, baniyas and kashatriyas will vote for the ONLY ALTERNATIVE & HOPE of the NATION the BSP's ELEPHANT to acquire the MASTER KEY for their welfare, happiness and peace as enshrined in the Constitution's Equal distribution of wealth.

Ms Mayawati, the Iron lady is the only leader who declared that BSP will put all its efforts to defeat Stealth Cult RSS's Bahuth Jiyadha Paapi (BJP) In Defense of Democracy. In this world of gods and men, together with Màras, Brahmas, and the community of recluses and brahmins I do not see anyone who could confuse BSP's mind, or split the Sarva Samaj i.e.,All Societies including SC/ST/OBC/Minorities and poor brahmins, baniyas and kashatriyas heart , or taken by their feet could throw them to the other bank of the river.

While forming the NDA coalition it had to drop its major agenda of Ram Temple, Abolition of article 370 and imposition of Uniform Civil Code. Being in power in center BJP did many things helpful to RSS agenda. It communalized the school text books; it introduced faith based curricula in the form of introducing Paurohitya, (Training for brahmins) Katmakand (Hindutva rituals) and astrology in the Universities. It gave appointment to many an Stealth Cult RSS volunteers to do core social work and other organizations.

During BJP rule also the prices went up tremendously. It was also riddled with many corruption scandals. It went on to do the nuclear test explosions in Pokhran, apparently to checkmate Pakistan. Pakistan in turn went on for more test explosions. The claim that these nuclear bombs will increase our security was quashed to the dust as Pakistan also matched the test explosions. As far as security is concerned, while it beat the drums of pseudo nationalism, Pakistan quietly occupied Kargil and later it could be evacuated on the pressure from United States. It is during this period that alleged attack on Parliament took place and in retaliation there was a massive and wasteful deployment of forces on the border, which was quietly withdrawn.

2. CEC did not pass orders to drape HAND symbol of Congress and National Flower LOTUS of BJP and the statues of upper caste leaders when their ruled states went for polls as it did with Ms Mayawati's BSP's ELEPHANT symbols and Historical SC/ST/OBC's Icons statues.

3. OPEN SOURCE CODE of EVMs that are not TAMPER PROOF are yet to be made public.

EC Corruption Stealth Cult RSS's Bahuth Jiyadha Paapi (BJP) Conspiracy, Black Out BSP's Sarva Samaj (All Society) including
SC/ST/OBC/Minorities, Poor brahmins, baniyas & kshatriya's Campaign.

During the last Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections as Ms Mayawati of BSP ruled, the CEC ordered for draping all the BSP ELEPHANT Symbols including the Trunk raised ones (Not BSP Symbol) along with all historical SC/ST/OBC icons' statues for LEVEL PLAYING GROUND. After that many Congress, Stealth Cult RSS's Bahuth Jiyadha Paapi (BJP) ruled states went for polls. But the CEC never bothered to order for draping Hand and National Flower Lotus Symbols and their upper Caste leaders' statues.

As the Electronic Voting Machines are not Tamper Proof, the CEC must publish their SOURCE CODE & make it an OPEN SOURCE CODE

1. It is Corrupt Election Commission which didn’t Record Expenses Narendra Modi Election Campaign for Poll Related Expenditure which cost up to Rs.50 crores to Rs.100 crore per rally mobilizing up to a million crowdincluding cost of live broadcast.

2. Election Commission didn’t STOP Poll Surveys of Gujarat CM Modi was projection – WITHOUT ANY MENTION OF IMPLEMENTATION of the CONSTITUTION – Election Commission Ought to have Procured ‘THIS ASSURACE At Least Six Months in Advance’ sothat Electors are fully introduced to Policies of Parties Before Casting Their Votes.

3. There is No Media Coverage of MS MAYAWATI's 35 Lakhs Rally at RAMABHAI AMBEDKAR on any TV channel when Election
Commission should be ensuring ‘Equal Opportunity to All Candidates.’

4. But it is ‘Gross Misconduct of EC to restrict a Party President with over 3.5 million followers .’ Obviously distinction had to be made
between BSP National President’s rally & campaign and Candidates in their own Constituencies.

5. It is obviously ‘DEMOCRATIC SCANDAL WHEN PARTIES CAMPAIGN WITHOUT ANY MENTION OF IMPLEMENTATION of the CONSTITUTION WHENELECTION COMMISSION SHOULD INSIST ON COMPLETE POLITICAL IDEAS OF IDEOLOGY OF REGISTERED PARTIES AT THE TIME OF REGISTRATION.’

6. Election Commission was Expected to Constitute in Advance a Supreme Court Judges Led Pannels to Monitor Lies of Parties & Ensure HONEST CONDUCT OF POLITICAL PARTIES.

DHAMMAPADA FESTIVAL on 15,16 and 17 at Mahabodhi Society, Bangalore

On 16th March 2014 Sunday at Venue: Maha Bodhi Society, Gandhinagar, Bangalore PHALGUNA PURNIMA from 9:30AM to 8 PM was celebrated in a grand manner. at 9:30 AM – Puja at Loka Shanti Buddha vihara at 10:00 AM –there was Sangha Dana – offering of lunch by upasakas and upasikas. At 11:00 AM – Bronze statue of Bada Bhante Venerable Dr.Acharya Buddharakkhita in front of the Satipatthana Bhavana Kuti was Unveiled by Venerable Sanghasena Mahathera President, Mahabodhi International Meditation Center, Leh Lighting of Lamp by Venerable Kassapa Thera, President, Mahabodhi Society, Bengaluru In the august presence of Venerable Phrakhru Ghosit Bodhisat, Thailand, Venerable Sumanasara Thero, Sri Lanka,Venerable Sayadaw Ottawa, Burma,Venerable Bhikkhu Buddhapriya, Hubli,Venerable Seevali Thero, MBSI, Kolkata,VenerableBhikkhuMasaoIshitani,Japan,Venerable Khemacara Bhikkhu, Hyderabad,And other venerable monks and devotees Guests of Honour Maha Upasaka Wg.Cdr.S.Rangaswamy, Dayaka Dr.Shivaprasad, Chancellor, Siddhartha University. Donation of Buddha Images by Venerable Phrakhru Sitthivarakom, Thailand. Special Guests.Ms.Monica Thaddey President, Mahabodhi Metta Foundation, Switzerland & members of Mahabodhi Swiss Group Offering of Robes to the Sangha by Smt……………1:30 PM – Lunch for upasakas and upasikas, donated by Upasaka J.M.Cheluvaraju and family

2:00 PM – Documentary show on Venerable Acharya Buddharakkhita

3:00 to 5:30 PM – Dhammapada and Abhidhamma chanting

6:30 PM – blessings by monks and Deepa puja
7:00 PM – Cultural Program – Play on Kisa Gotami