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Stress tests under fire as German banks hide debt

Published 26 July 2010 - Updated 27 July 2010
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Bank stress tests were greeted with a mixture of cynicism and relief this weekend. Amid market doubts over their toughness, German banks stand accused of hiding their exposure to sovereign debt. 

Six of the 14 German banks tested did not disclose their exposure to sovereign debt, one of a few key benchmarks in an exercise designed to test banks' resilience to future economic shocks.

The US, the International Monetary Fund and markets had heaped pressure on regulators to fully disclose banks' exposure in the tests.

Officials from Germany's BaFin regulatory authority said the banks were not obliged to fully disclose their exposure under German law, the Financial Times reported.

Among the banks that hid their sovereign debt quotient were Deutsche Bank, Postbank, Landesbank Berlin, Hypo Real Estate, and mutual groups DZ and WGZ.

Hypo Real Estate unsurprisingly failed the test as the bank had sought a further €2 billion in state aid before the tests began.

The European Commission yesterday (25 July) also waded into the debate, urging banks that had not made known their sovereign debt exposure to do so as soon as possible.

Ahead of the tests, sources had predicted that some banks would try to conceal their exposure to sovereign debt as disclosing such information would make markets too jittery (EurActiv 02/07/10).

Seven out of 91 banks failed test

According to the results, which were released on Friday evening, only seven of 91 banks failed the stress tests, meaning that their tier one capital ratio – measuring core capital against total assets – fell below a 6% margin.

The tests showed that the seven failures had moderate capital shortfalls – 3.5 billion - sparking fears that the tests were not rigorous enough.

Under the most severe scenario banks were tested on how they would cope with a moderate recession this year and next, with additional losses on government bonds thrown in.

Five of Spain's small regional lenders, known as cajas, failed the test. The Bank of Spain said the banks would need €1.8 billion, while analysts predicted that their recapitalisation would likely herald a restructuring of the troubled sector. 

The two other failures were Hypo Real Estate and a troubled Greek lender, the state-controlled ATEbank.

Analysts have been heaping criticism on the test scenarios, claiming they were designed to leave the sector looking stronger than it is.

"I see nothing stressful about this test. It's like sending the banks away for a weekend of R&R," said Stephen Pope, chief global equity strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.

Market watchers were disappointed that the tests' sovereign stress scenarios were applied to banks' trading books alone and not to their banking books, where nearly 90% of sovereign holdings lie.

This would have spelled default for Europe, an outcome governments were keen to avoid.

Just before the publication of the tests EU ministers were in secretive talks. Sources say government officials were still undecided about how much they could ask their banks to disclose (EurActiv 23/07/10).

Positions: 

"As the purpose of the stress test exercise is to increase transparency and bolster confidence, we have definitely started on the wrong foot," said Sven GiegoldGerman MEP and Greens/European Free Alliance coordinator on the European Parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee.

"As the tests have been engineered through weak and unrealistic assumptions in order to allow most of the institutions to succeed and therefore to avoid further corrective action, they won't help to build confidence nor to address the underlying weakness of the EU banking system. Europe's banks continue to be undercapitalised," Giegold continued.

"The adverse scenarios used in the stress test are designed as 'what-if' scenarios, reflecting severe assumptions which are therefore not very likely to materialise in practice. Accordingly, the results of the test confirm the overall resilience of the EU banking system to negative macroeconomic and financial shocks, and are an important step forward in restoring market confidence," read a statement from the European Commission on Friday 23 July.

Welcoming the results, French MEP Jean-Paul Gauzès, spokesman for the European People's Party group on economic and monetary issues, said: "In light of the results published on Friday, we note that most European banks are solid, and I welcome this result."

"Nevertheless these good results should not bring us to disregard the implementation of norms, in particular as regards banks' own capital requirements," he added. 

Background: 

While Europe was initially not too badly affected by the financial turmoil that began with the 2008 collapse of US investment bank, Lehman Brothers, the crisis stormed into the continent at the end of September 2008.

A number of EU countries were forced to apply emergency measures to salvage their banking institutions and prevent a collapse of the financial system, with the European Commission fast-tracked the approval of bank bailout plans to prevent confidence from plunging further.

Last year, Brussels pushed for banks in need of state aid to undergo stress tests in order to assess the viability of their restructuring plan (EurActiv 24/07/09).

The EU has so far conducted only one stress test for the banking sector as a whole, rather than for individual countries or banks. The results, published in autumn 2009, indicated that the sector was sound and could withstand a much worse economic downturn than the one which took place.

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