President Viktor Yushchenko blamed the crisis on his prime minister Yulia Timoshenko, whom he had recently accused of "high treason" for siding with Moscow during the Georgian crisis (EurActiv 20/08/08). In the meantime Timoshenko reacted, saying that her position was in line with that of the EU and that she did not want to drag Ukraine into the conflict.
At an emergency meeting Tuesday night, Yuschenko's party, "Our Ukraine/People's Self-defence," voted to withdraw from the coalition with the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc, accusing it of attempting a constitutional coup after it voted, together with the pro-Moscow Party of the Regions, in favour of four key bills to transfer authority from the president to the cabinet of ministers.
The next day (3 September), Yushchenko made a live television address to the nation in which he threatened to use his right to dissolve the parliament if a new ruling majority coalition was not formed within 30 days. Observers note, however, that Our Ukraine/People's Self-Defence has not yet officially dissolved the current coalition. There are supporters of the current coalition in both Our Ukraine/People's Self-Defence and the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc.
Western disappointment
MEPs and Western diplomats expressed bitterness over the ill-timed political in-fighting between the two leaders of the pro-Western coalition. EU leaders, and notably French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, had warned Ukraine against destabilisation following the Georgia crisis (EurActiv 27/08/08).
And, while the recent EU summit had indicated (EurActiv 02/09/08) that Ukraine could capitalise from the crisis and obtain more generous treatment as a prospective EU member, instead, the internal crisis has already led to a downgrading of the language of the draft declaration, which is to be adopted at the 9 September EU-Ukraine summit in Evian. According to sources, no mention is made of future EU membership in the fresh draft.
A Commission spokesperson was not even sure that the summit would take place, as the French Presidency could in principle cancel the meeting. Asked if the EU executive considers the latest developments to have been triggered by the Georgian crisis, the spokesperson said they are seen as a continuation of previous in-fighting.
Speaking to EurActiv, the chairman of the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee Jacek-Sariucz Wolski called for "unity of the Orange coalition, not breakup". He said the coalition was facing a problem of credibility over whether it was really capable of following its pro-European agenda.
In spite of Yuschenko accusing his prime minister of siding with Moscow, several commentators instead see the conflict in the light of the upcoming presidential elections in 2010, when both the incumbent president and Timoshenko are expected to run for the top job. According to polls, Timoshenko is much more popular than Yuschenko. She enjoys at least 25% support among voters, while the leader of the opposition Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych has 20% and Yushchenko a mere 6%.
But observers also warn that Moscow will without doubt attempt to take advantage of the troubled situation.
