"It is probable that […] not much will happen at the summit itself," says Schmid, who believes "big decisions on the institutional structure of the Mediterranean Union will be put off until later."
Likewise, she says decisions regarding the financing of projects to be officially agreed at the summit will be delayed too. "I don't think that we will have financing plans at this stage," she says.
The Mediterranean Union's ability to attract private funds will be key to the success of the projects. José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission President, has already warned that little should be expected from the EU budget, with only around €50 million available under the European Neighbourhood Policy, a straw in the wind in comparison to the billions of euros needed to complete the projects.
On 10 April, the Commission and the European Investment Bank (EIB) presented a study identifying 44 priority "de-pollution" projects, worth roughly €2.1 billion (EurActiv 14/04/08). Other projects, suggested on 20 May by the Commission, include a plan to boost the use of solar energy in southern countries, land and sea motorways, enhanced cooperation on civil protection matters and a Euromed University for which several more billion euros will be needed (EurActiv 21/05/08).
But at this stage, it is not yet clear who will finance the projects, Schmid says. "Regarding private funds, we don't know yet who will get involved. It is not easy to attract the private sector on long term projects, which, by nature, tend to rather mobilise public funds."
There is more hope, however, that the Paris Summit can make progress on the Union's institutional architecture. Institutions, Schmid says, "will give a concrete aspect to the project" because "they leave a trace". "And we have been discussing a rebalance between north and south in Mediterranean institutions for years. It is a widely shared idea in substance but which we know is difficult to bring to life in practice."
Under current draft plans, heads of states and government would meet every two years and a co-presidency with equal representation of northern and southern nations would be put in place to manage the summits and annual foreign affairs ministerial meetings. In addition, a joint secretariat would be established to promote and follow up the projects.
But here too, issues keep cropping up, including the "eternal problem" of Israel's presence among Arab states during meetings, Schmid says.
And the permanent secretariat is creating headaches too. "The French government would like the secretariat to play a more political role but the Commission would like to limit it to a more technical role," Schimd says. "However, it seems this debate has not been ended and will not be so on 13 July either."
The Paris summit on Sunday should also be clouded by the absence of Muammar Gaddafi, the Libyan leader, who recently lashed out at Sarkozy's EuroMed project, saying it will divide Southern nations. "If Europe wants to co-operate with us, they can do it with the Arab League or the African Union, and we will never allow Arab or African unity to be undermined," Gaddafi said on the sidelines of a mini Arab summit in June (EurActiv 11/06/08).
But Gaddafi's absence should be an isolated event, as leaders from the forty or so invited countries are all planning to attend.
Its chances of success received a further boost on Wednesday (9 July) when Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, accepted Nicolas Sarkozy's invitation in a telephone conversation. "The prime minister said he will attend unless something extraordinary happens," Erdogan's spokesman Akif Beki told AFP.
This is despite initial reservations by Turkey over the project, which it saw as a disguised alternative to its EU membership aspirations. Sarkozy has been a vocal opponent to Turkey's EU accession bid but has softened his position recently when he allowed the Parliament to pass an amendment to the French Constitution that scraps all references to popular referenda being held whenever a country with a large population wishes to join the EU. The law has not yet been officially passed.
Click here to read the full interview with Dorthée Schmid on EurActiv France (in French).
