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'Revolution' brewing as Georgia faces mass protests

Published 09 April 2009
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Opposition activists said dozens of their supporters were arrested overnight ahead of mass rallies scheduled against President Mikheil Saakashvili today (April 9). US analysts warned of a possible "revolution" to topple the Georgian president.

Pressure is mounting in Georgia ahead of a major opposition meeting scheduled for today. The 'Democratic Movement-United Georgia' party of former Saakashvili ally Nino Burjanadze said around 60 activists had been detained in the town of Rustavi, southeast of Tbilisi. 

"They were planning to come to Tbilisi today to attend the rally," party spokeswoman Khatuna Ivanishvili said, quoted by Reuters. The authorities denied that any arrests been made. 

The Georgian press reported that some opposition and government leaders, including Saakashvili, were briefly united today, when they appeared together outside the parliament to commemorate the victims of the tragedy of 9 April 1989. On that day, twenty people were killed as Soviet troops attacked a crowd of peaceful protesters in Tbilisi. 

9 April also marks the restoration of Georgia's independence, as the country's legislative body passed a declaration of independence in 1991 based on the results of the 31 March 1991 referendum, which saw an overwhelming majority of Georgians vote to secede from the Soviet Union. 

Stratfor, a news agency close to US intelligence circles, said that today's opposition rallies could spell trouble for Saakashvili. 

"The Western-leaning president has faced protests before, but this time the opposition is more consolidated than in the past. Furthermore, some members of the government are expected to join in the protests, and Russia has stepped up its efforts to oust Saakashvili," writes Stratfor. 

Allies join the opposition 

"The growing discontent in Georgia is allowing the opposition groups to finally overcome their differences and agree that Saakashvili should be removed. Even Saakashvili loyalists, like former parliament speaker Nino Burjanadze and former Georgian Ambassador to the United Nations Irakli Alasania have joined the opposition's cause, targeting Saakashvili personally," the US agency further elaborates. 

Last month, Georgian authorities arrested seven members of Ms. Burjanadze's party on charges of illegal weapons possession. Georgian intelligence chief Gela Bezhuashvili alleged they were part of a Moscow-backed conspiracy aiming to "remove Georgian authorities through internal disorder and destabilisation". 

Burjanadze said the allegations are part of a desperate smear campaign by pro-Saakashvili officials. 

Georgian public opinion also appears to be looking for new leaders. A recent poll called Irakli Alasania, who until recently was visiting Brussels as foreign minister, as "the most constructive politician in Georgia". 

Background: 

Russia and Georgia fought a five-day war in August 2008. The conflict saw Russian troops repel an assault on the breakaway pro-Russian region of South Ossetia, which broke free from Tbilisi's rule in the early 1990s. 

Russia later recognised South Ossetia and Georgia's second breakaway region of Abkhazia as independent states. Russia has thousands of troops stationed in both regions. 

Vladimir Putin, Russia's prime minister, was quoted at the time by a French diplomat as saying in substance that he wanted Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili hanged. 

Privately, EU representatives generally recognise that Saakashvili was to blame for the August war. However, he still enjoys Western support as a symbol of the 2003 'Rose Revolution' in Georgia. 

As economic growth in Georgia slowed dramatically after the war, the EU and other international donors pledged €3.5 billion to rebuild the country and boost its ailing economy, in return for democratic reforms (EurActiv 23/10/08). 

On 29 January, in a rare show of unity, the leaders of around a dozen opposition parties in Georgia issued a joint declaration, calling on Saakashvili to quit and hold free and fair elections to the presidency and the parliament (EurActiv 02/02/09). 

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