The conference provides an opportunity to push forward a difficult negotiating process, with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) circulating "the first draft of a new global agreement," the December article states.
However, with global economic conditions in a state of flux, Copsey fears that negotiations could lose momentum. Indeed, she worries that the economic turmoil may represent a "serious roadblock, ruining chances of any serious agreement being reached next year".
The author nevertheless states that the conference is about "what can be done now to improve the Kyoto Protocol until it expires" and how to "effectively finance low-carbon development and facilitate the transfer of clean technologies".
Copsey maintains that the EU, the US, China and India are not only the major CO2 emitters, but hold together the "key to forming a new agreement".
Although the Bush administration is unlikely to change its position significantly in the negotiations, many nations are already "beginning to informally seek the opinion of President-elect Barack Obama and his transition team," the article notes.
Moreover, members of Congress attending the conference will report back to Obama, who has sent a strong signal by promising that under his presidency, the US will "once again engage vigorously in these negotiations, and help lead the world toward a new era of global cooperation on climate change," Copsey states.
As for China, it is seeking "technological assistance and financial support as part of a new global deal," the article says. This, however, clashes with the belief of some experts that this is only a delaying tactic to stave off EU calls for China to "take on emissions reductions significantly below business-as-usual levels as part of a global deal," the author observes.
The economic downturn will also have implications for the Poznań talks, but Copsey expresses optimism that it may actually provide an "opportunity to address global warming" by strengthening calls for the transition to a green economy.
"Poznań may be marked by difficult, complex negotiations, but it is an important step on the road to Copenhagen and a new global deal that will determine our common futures," Copsey concludes.
