Developing countries would have to "reduce their emissions by 15-30% below business as usual in order to be consistent with the EU objective of staying within the threshold of two degrees [Celsius]," the author claims.
However, these countries are now "more diverse than they were when the Kyoto Protocol was designed," Fujiwara declares, pointing to the fact that they now have their own priorities.
The main challenge for African nations, for instance, will be "avoiding emissions rather than emissions reductions," Fujiwara maintains. Indeed, African countries' immediate concern is adaptation to the impacts of climate change, "which is shared by other least-developed countries and small-island developing states" throughout the world, she states.
Energy-scarce countries, on the other hand, would have to "reduce dependency on imported fossil fuels through energy-efficiency improvements," Fujiwara argues. Nation states with non-fossil fuel resource endowments will also need to "introduce low-carbon technology either on their own or with support from advanced economies," she says.
As for emerging economies, their main task will be "decoupling energy consumption from GDP growth," the paper argues. Developing countries will need to "leapfrog an economy based on fossil fuels on the way to a low-carbon economy with the aid of advanced clean technology and support for capacity-building".
But the paper warns that the economic costs of climate change adaptation "are likely to play a larger role in the political debate" as the financial crisis deepens. Successful international coordination and effective economic and financial policies could "help to ease the tension" between richer and poorer economies, the author argues.
The fact that many countries at the Poznań negotiating table are at different stages of economic development will "increase the complexity of [...] climate change negotiations," Fujiwara concludes.