A study analysing existing methodologies to calculate the impact of Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions highlights major discrepancies when they are applied to different biofuel production processes.
The study, compiled by BeCitizen, a French environmental consultancy, concludes that percentages of a biofuel's negative or positive impact on GHG emissions vary a lot depending on the crop and zone of production, and asserts that existing studies show a low level of robustness.
It would therefore be "risky" to use current methods as a basis for policymaking, BeCitizens stressed.
The five methodologies reviewed include those presented by Searchinger, Ecofys, Fritsche, Fargione and Friends of the Earth.
Their methodologies were all analysed according to the assessment criteria identified by the European Commission. The three criteria are:
- The percentage of land displaced per hectare of biofuel planted;
- the type of land and the country where the substitution takes place, and;
- the GHG emissions linked to the ILUC.
Moreover, the methodologies were reviewed according to a further eight sub-criteria: the total value of a given biofuel's by-products, the level of yield, integration of second-generation biofuels, the type of land affected by the ILUC, the carbon stored by the new crop, the timescale of carbon balance calculation, evolving carbon emissions and the source data for calculating emissions.
The consultancy stressed that "in-depth studies have to be conducted to develop a robust methodology" incorporating all the above factors.
Political choices, economic decisions
Capucine Laurent, associate director of BeCitizen's biomass and agro-resources department, stressed that some of the criteria represented "political choices", like choosing the timescale of carbon balance calculation. The study indicated that the length of the period chosen "will have a huge impact on the final result" and can vary between -30% and +350% depending on whether the balance is calculated over five, ten or 15 years.
Including ILUC is also an "economic decision," putting into question the millions of euros already invested in the sector and its production chain, as well as related jobs, she added.
In any case, including ILUC for biofuel criteria is likely to have "major consequences for the biofuel industry," she noted.
No consenus on policy options
None of the five existing studies, according to BeCitizen, attracts consensus among stakeholders.
A Commission 'pre-consultation' on a series of political choices to take into account the effects of indirect land-use change caused by biofuels, organised in summer 2009, did not deliver consenus either (EurActiv 30/07/09).
Both NGOs and industry are lukewarm about the idea of extending the issue of land-use change to other commodities and countries, rather than limiting the approach to biofuels consumed in the EU alone.
The industry would back an international agreement to protect carbon-rich habitats, an idea which NGOs are not convinced by.
NGOs' favoured policy option would be the inclusion of the ILUC factor in GHG calculations for biofuels, an idea opposed by the industry.
