Comment les 25 perçoivent-ils la candidature turque ?

Résumé

Having spent some four decades in the EU's waiting room, Turkey is set to hear the decision of the member states' leaders on the country's EU membership bid in the middle of December. While the basis on which the summit will make its decision is Ankara's readiness to acceede, the question of whether the EU itself is ready to accept Turkey in the club is increasingly coming to the fore.

Whether in realistic terms the EU's 25 member states will be able to come to grips with the Union's largest expansion in its history remains anyone's guess. One of the biggest associated challenges is for the EU-25 to prepare public opinion, which in several countries is overwhelmingly hostile to Turkey's membership. 

If accession negotiations begin with Ankara in 2005, actual membership is not likely to follow in less than a decade. Europe's leaders appear to hope that by the their electorates will have come around.

Enjeux

In several EU member states, there appears to be a stark contrast between the opinion of the political establishment on Turkey’s membership of the Union and that of the broad public. 

For some, but clearly not all, current member states, Turkey represents a challenging great potential. For many of these states’ citizens, however, Turkey appears as a country too big, too poor, too distant and too Muslim. 

Although public opinion surveys on Turkey’s joining the EU are still few and far between across Europe, the general understanding appears to be that an eventual referendum on the issue would most likely fail in practically all the major EU member states. 

The leaders of the EU member states will have to reach an unanimous decision in mid-December on the Turkish bid. That decision, however, will subsequently be subjected to approval on the member state level, either through referenda or by parliamentary vote.

While a few national governments and parliaments have already declared their respective positions on the Turkish bid, there are still many – especially smaller – member states which appear to be marking time, seemingly waiting for the major powers to spell out and align their stances first.

Réactions

Britain has rather long been known to be one of the strongest supporters of Ankara’s bid, and Prime Minister Tony Blair is widely expected to press for a 'positive' outcome at the 16-17 December summit. For London, Turkey's admission would amount to a smart strategic move. The public in Britain remains divided on the issue.

Germany, the country in Europe with the largest community of Turkish immigrants, is supportive of Turkey’s cause at the top levels. However, recent polls put the citizens’ approval rate at around 30% only. 

France has been pulling closer and closer to promoting an alternative “third way” approach to Turkey in recent weeks, to a large extent as a result of the population’s overwhelming opposition to Turkish EU membership. France is the only member state where opposition to Turkey’s EU membership predominates at both levels – government and society. The public opinion polls show an average 70-80% rejection rate. 

The Netherlands has also been struggling to integrate its ever-growing Muslim communities, and the prospect of Turkey joining the “club” is apparently pushing the country’s leaders closer and closer to the French approach. The Dutch public is known to be predominantly rejective. 

Austria’s leaders are also inclined to heed the message from the country’s citizens, who are strongly against Turkey joining the Union. A recent poll found that 76% of Austrians were against Turkey's accession. Rather fierce public resistance also appears to emanate from Luxembourg, Cyprus,  Denmark and Sweden.

Official Greece, apparently hoping to become able to resolve a number of outstanding issues with Ankara through a supportive vote (including the quarrels over the divided Cyprus), has manifested goodwill toward the Turkish bid – even in the teeth of the Greek public’s marked reservations. 

Among the smaller member states, the Czech Republic is expected to vote in favour of Turkey’s bid at the European summit, notwithstanding that the country’s ruling coalition remains divided on the issue. Accordingly, the Czech ‘yes’ is likely to be a careful ‘yes’. Meanwhile, there is not much public discussion about the issue in the country, and no representative public opinion polls have been conducted yet. 

In Slovakia, Hungary, the Baltic states and in many smaller member states the pattern appears to be rather similar to that in Prague. These governments are generally supportive of the Turkish bid, with dissenting voices coming either from the Christian Democrats or the opposition circles or from the radicals in the extremist corners. Several of the smaller member states are expected to side with a decision that would seek to attach a set of conditions to the projected negotiation process. In general, the public in these countries remains potentially divided but by and large ignorant of the issue and its implications. 

Public - and through that official - support for Turkey is far more marked in the Mediterranean states. On both official and public levels, Italy, Spain and  Portugal look at Turkey as a potential balance against the EU-10 countries that joined the Union in May 2004.

Liens externes

EU official documents

• GD Erweiterung:Relations with Turkey
• Europäischer Rat:Tagung vom 16. und 17. Juni in Brüssel - Schlussfolgerungen des Vorsitzes
• GD Erweiterung:Commission recommends to start negotiations with Turkey under certain conditions(6 Oct 2004)
• Parlament:Commission President Romano Prodi's speech on the Commissions recommendation on Turkeys application(6 Oct 2004)
• GD Erweiterung:Bericht über die Fortschritte der Türkei auf dem Weg zum Beitritt(6. Oktober 2004)
• GD Erweiterung:Report on the perspectives of Turkey's membership(6 Oct 2004)

Business & Industry

• Verband dänischer Industrien:Turkey on Track- Potentials and Pittfalls of Tureky's EU-membership(Dezember 2004)

NGOs and Think-Tanks

• The Washington Institute for Near East Policy:Is the European Union ready for Turkey?
• Economist Intelligence Unit:EU politics: A qualified "Yes" for Turkey
• Centre for Public Opinion and Democracy:Greek Cypriots Would Block Turkey’s EU Bid
• The Heritage Foundation:Beyond the Conventional Wisdom: Looking at the Realities of Turkey Joining the European Union

Press articles

• Kathimerini:EU mulls a green light for Turkey, but on strict terms
• Chicago Tribune:Europeans in no mood to welcome Turkey
• MENA-FN:Will Turkey join the EU?
• The Belfast Telegraph:Chirac rallies support for Turkey's EU bid
• Turkish Weekly:New Hiccups to Turkey’s EU membership
• The International Herald Tribune:EU gets a warning from edgy Turkey
• Newsday:Greece Offers Turkey EU Welcome Mat
• Zaman:France's dilemma
• Economist:Turkish tales
• Christian Science Monitor:Wariness over Turkey's EU bid
• EurAsiaNet:Turkey's membership bid enters critical phase
• Zaman:Stern: 75.9 percent of Turks Hope for EU
• MPA:Public opinion is against Turkey's European prospect