Condamnation par les universitaires des alternatives à l’adhésion de la Turquie à l’UE[en] 

Speaking at a gathering of young conservatives on 10 May in Berlin (EurActiv 11/05/09), German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she would prefer Turkey to receive a privileged partnership from the EU, rather than full membership, echoing recent comments made by French President Nicolas Sarkozy at the launch of his EU election campaign (EurActiv 8/05/09). 

At the same meeting, Sarkozy told German newspaper Bild am Sonntag: "We need a well-organised Europe [...] That means we cannot expand without borders. We shouldn't make any empty promises to Turkey." 

These statements angered Turkish leaders, who insisted that the Union had already accepted that Turkey would be an EU member. "Rules cannot be changed during the game," Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said. 

Erdogan has been Turkey's prime minister since March 2003. Before that, he was mayor of Istanbul and a national figure for Islamist voters. As mayor, he was sentenced to ten months in jail and served four in 1999. In the 2002 national elections, he was barred from running for office as a result of his conviction, but after his AKP party won the poll, the constitution was modified to enable him to run in a by-election, which he won. He took office as prime minister. 

The AKP portrays itself as a moderate, conservative, pro-Western and pro-EU party, which under Erdogan has evolved from pressing an Islamist agenda towards democratic and economic reforms stressing moral values. 

Turkey has achieved substantial economic progress under AKP governance, but the secular establishment has frequently challenged the AKP, the most serious move being an unsuccessful attempt by the Constitutional Court to outlaw the party (EurActiv 31/07/08). 

Speaking at a Brussels conference organised by the 'TR Centre for Turkey in Europe ', a think-tank, Turkish academics warned that it would be "impossible" for the country to accept any other kind of relationship with the EU than full membership. 

"A privileged partnership will not provide an incentive for deep political transformation," said Şevket Pamuk from the London School of Economics. Pamuk - who is the brother of Nobel prize winner Orhan Pamuk - argued that if EU leaders keep saying that Turkey will never become an EU member, it will be very difficult for the country to tackle its internal problems successfully. 

Binnaz Toprak, from Bahçeşehir University, argued that there was a feeling in Turkey that "whatever we do, the EU will never accept us, because we are a Muslim country". She explained that the Turkish Islamic movement has never attempted to install an Islamic state, but rather to make room for itself in the power and status hierarchy of the society. 

"Unlike other Islamic movements elsewhere in the Islamic world, a strong radical Islamic movement never emerged in Turkey. Today the division between Islamists and secularists is not about whether the secularist state will remain. If you look at surveys, only 8% of the population would say they want an Islamic state," she argued. 

"Islamists were kept out of society to such an extent that until recently, they were talking about themselves as 'the blacks' of Turkey, versus the secular 'white'," the Turkish scholar further explained. She said the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had built its success on its grassroots activities during the AKP's founding period, and on its capacity to bargain and compromise. 

Professor Pamuk called on the EU not to invest all its efforts in its relationship with the ruling AKP. "During the early years of the AKP administration, when the EU found a willing ally in the AKP, which was willing to go ahead with reforms, I think the EU abandoned Turkey's Western-oriented secular elite and dealt primarily with the AKP. After 2005, these Western-oriented elites were disappointed by the EU. I think it is time for the EU to bring these Turkish secular elites back," Pamuk said. 

Pamuk also commended the present Turkish government for pursuing an agenda of "zero problems with neighbours". 

The Cyprus challenge 

Constantionos Eliades, the Cypriot ambassador to Belgium, challenged Professor Pamuk to specify how the present government had improved its relations with all its neighbours. 

"Turkey has to remember that with its present policies, it will never get accession. When you have a candidate country, behaving as the EU has 26 countries, occupying European territory and having hostile policy toward an EU country, [..] you need a reversal of the tide," the diplomat said. 

In response, Pamuk reminded listeners that it was the Greek Cypriot community, not the Turkish one, who in 2004 rejected the UN secretary-general's reunification plan, suggesting a two-part federation with a rotating presidency. 

Pamuk used the opportunity to call on the EU to take a more active role in the settlement of the Cyprus problem. At present, talks are ongoing between Cypriot President Demetris Christofias and Cypriot Turkish community leader Mehmet Ali Talat, under the watch of Alexander Downer, the UN's special advisor on Cyprus and a former Australian foreign minister. 

During a visit to Warsaw on 14 May, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan lashed out at the leaders of Germany and France for opposing Turkey's accession to the European Union. 

"Before everything else, I read both of the leaders' statements as unfortunate. I'm a person who believes in honesty in politics. I'm a person who believes that there is need for standing behind whatever is said during bilateral, tête-à-tête meetings," Erdogan said, adding that Turkey should be treated equal to the EU's current members regarding accession criteria and the implementation of existing EU laws.

"There is a statement that I always make: 'The game has started, we're playing and the penalty rules are changing during the match.' It's not acceptable; people will laugh at you," Erdogan added. 

Semith Idiz, an analyst at the Turkish daily Hurriyet, ridiculed Sarkozy's ideas on regional cooperation. 

Sarkozy's vision of a Mediterranean Union has come to "nothing of significance," Idiz writes. He adds that his new idea of another "union" including Russia and Turkey "will entail another stillbirth," even if it sounds good in an election environment in France, where "we are told 67% of the public oppose Turkey's EU bid," Idiz writes.