Dangereuse impasse pour Chypre[en] 

The author first returns to the 1974 crisis in Cyprus that led to the occupation of 40% of the island by Turkish troops and the establishment of a militarised frontier between the Greek and Turkish regions. The crisis marked the most dramatic turning point in Cypriot history, he says. 

Following many attempts to restore unity to Cyprus, a breakthrough was finally achieved in 2003 by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) after a political change in Ankara, outlines Halliday. 

The frontier was opened and there have been no serious incidents or conflicts of any kind reported since then in either the north or south of the island. Moreover, the crossing at the checkpoint no longer poses a problem, notes the author. 

That same year, the European Union agreed on the accession of Cyprus to the Union, remarks Halliday. It was expected that after Cyprus's accession, both parts of the island would make concessions – the Greeks to ensure that the entry of Cyprus took place effectively, and the Turks to ensure that the populations in their part of the country were given access to the benefits of EU membership and that flexibility would help in the overall negotiations on Turkey's entry to the EU. 

This 'over-estimated' optimism led to the Greek rejection of the proposed UN agreement that would have restored a confederal Cyprus. According to the author, this project, submitted to a referendum in 2004, "hit the rocks of political reality." 

This rejection is partly due to the international irresponsibility of nationalist politics and in particular the actions of the president of Cyprus, Tassos Papadopoulos, outlines the paper. 

Other more substantial reasons for the rejection include the lack of clear information for voters, the fact that the agreement would have left large numbers of Turkish troops on the island and the fact that the Greek part of Cyprus became a much more prosperous region than the Turkish part, notes the author. 

The political change in Turkey and the increased contact between the two communities marks a significant step towards stability, concludes the author. However, Halliday talks about "unstable stability", even though some see hope in the fact that Dimitris Christofias, leader of the Greek-Cypriot Communist party, has now broken with Papadopoulos and announced that he will run for president in the next Cypriot presidential elections.