"Kosovo Albanians need the respectability that a smooth transition will gain their nascent state," Anderson writes, warning that violence would only reduce the number of countries willing to recognise its independence and frighten potential foreign investors.
A tranquil transition would allow Pristina and its supporters – the US and most of the EU – to claim that everything had changed, whereas exuberant Albanian celebrations "could set off a chain of mutual Albanian-Serb provocations and clashes," the author cautions.
The divided city of Mitrovica is particulary vulnerable to such a breakdown, Anderson fears, identifying small armed extremist groups, primarily on the Albanian side, as a menace. The NATO-led 17,000 KFOR troops as well as the UN and local police "will have to be on their toes," he says.
The author also appeals to the EU to better address the main fear of the Serbs in Kosovo: that independence will entail the Kosovo Albanians' automatic destruction of their Belgrade-financed parallel institutions, such as schools and medical centres, which serve as a cornerstone of their community security.
The analysis concludes by saying that public outreach is essential to create the confidence that all parties will need during the uncertain period ahead.
"Broader communication and bridge-building could give Kosovo's Albanians and Serbs a shared script for the transition" which could read like this: "We disagree on the status, but we agree not to fight about it," Anderson writes.
