Left and right square off in familiar showdown
The latest figures from leading Swedish pollsters indicate that mainstream parties of the left and right will dominate these elections, as they have done for the past fifteen years. In fact, according to an April poll, they even stand to make significant gains from their 2004 results, to the detriment of smaller parties.
There is a real possibility that the ruling centre-right will become Sweden's most popular party, edging out the Social Democrats for the first time in any election since 1914.
A centre-right victory would reinforce the position of moderate Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt as his government prepares to assume the rotating EU presidency, a mere three weeks after the elections on 1 July.
The battle of the rest: Big losses for fringe parties
Beyond the 'big two', a considerable number of smaller parties are battling for the remaining seats.
The emergence and rapid growth of the Swedish Pirate Party (EurActiv 22/04/09) has added a new dynamic to the election build-up, with some recent polls predicting that the party could win as many as two of Sweden's 18 seats.
The big story among the 'rest' is that a number of Eurosceptic parties could lose the gains they made in the 2004 elections. The far-left Vänsterpartiet, which in 2004 won a significant 12.5% of the popular vote and elected two MEPs, could see both its overall votes and its number of MEPs halved.
Meanwhile, the Euro-critical Junilistan (the June List) could also see its number of MEPs decrease from two to one.
Climate change main issue for Swedish voters
Unlike most EU countries, where polls indicate that the financial and economic crisis will be the foremost issue on voters' minds, Swedes will prioritise environmental, climate and energy issues when going to the ballots in June.
A late April poll showed that 23% of voters put the climate first, compared to only 15% who focus on the economy and financial crisis, and 12% on unemployment and jobs.
Swedish EU integration, meanwhile, has dropped in importance. In 2004, questions of "national self-determination and democracy" were second only to climate issues, whereas in 2009, they have slipped to fifth in the ranking of voters' concerns.
One Swedish analyst told EurActiv that this shift explained not only the seemingly imminent demise of a number of Eurosceptic parties, but could lay the foundation for a 'yes' majority when Sweden, as is widely expected, votes (again) on joining the euro in 2011.
